Going from Colorado to, well, anywhere is an improvement for the big righty, and while it's not New York or Boston as was widely speculated, Cleveland is not a bad place to land. The Indians have been the surprise success of the league this year, and just as they were starting to fade, they pulled off this blockbuster of a deal. Good for them. But the big question for us AL-Onliers, "How much FAAB should we spend to get him?"
If you're in-it-to-win-it, obviously you're bidding basically everything you've got. Bear in mind, at this point in the season you're looking at buying about 10 starts, yielding 5 or 6 wins and maybe 60-70 strikeouts. If you're in wait-til-next-year mode, you're got some thinking to do. The fact that Rasmus is also here adds some intrigue to the process. Let's start with Ubaldo.
As my Squirrels are solidly middle of the pack, I've only got the a faint glimmer of hope to finish in the top 4 money slots. So if I'm bidding for an ace to hold and build around for next year, I'm essentially deciding how much he'll go for at auction next spring.
Knowing what he went for in NL-only leagues would be helpful data, except I have no idea where to find that info. [If anybody reading this knows a site that aggregates auction prices, let me know!] Meanwhile, I'll just use my gut. After a few years doing auctions, you get a pretty good feel for what a guy will go for, and my gut says a top-flight pitcher like Ubaldo would go for upper $30s. BTW, I'm ignoring his early season issues and assuming he's more like the 19-game-winning, 200-K guy he was last year, so I'll look at the comps and review the top SPs in the AL this year:
CC Sabbathia $38
Justin Verlander $26
Jeff Weaver $19
Felix Hernandez $33
Dan Haren $37
Jon Lester $39
Of those, only Sabbathia, Haren, and Lester were up for auction this season. (The rest were under older contracts.) So again, you're looking at upper $30s.
Next, I'll check the remaining FAAB for each team. Only one is definitely out of the bidding with only $21 remaining. I've got $51 in the bank. Amazingly, the 2nd place team and the 2nd-to-last place teams both still have a whopping $87 left. One would figure the 2nd place team will break the bank with a FAAB busting bid to put him over the top this season, but he's only got $21 of salary cap space. Nevertheless, I can't let other team's bids affect my valuation for next season, so I'll bid $39 and see what happens!
As for Colby Rasmus, Hardballtimes.com gives a great, detailed overview of Rasmus here for you super-stat-heads. But after adjusting for ballpark effects, breaking down his OPS, and number-crunching his projections, the upshot is what you see is what you get: A solid 20/80 OF, to wit:
As a fantasy hitter, Rasmus is still overrated, particularly in 5x5 standard leagues. Rasmus is more likely to remain a 20-25 home run hitter going forward, but he is still only a .260/23 HR/11 SB type batter. That kind of production is valuable, but probably not top-36 (OF3) material. Rasmus is a brand-name player who was drafted as a top-25 outfielder and top-100 overall player this year, and given that kind of love, he is unlikely to be someone to turn a profit and is probably capable of returning a loss.Other new AL FAAB targets include:
OF Kosuke Fukudome, who came to Cleveland. He'll be filling in for Choo, so he'll be playing everyday, but that's about all the nice things I can say about him. It's just hard to get excited about a .260, 10-HR, 50-RBI guy with no speed, no matter how much fun it is to say his name. That said, I suppose I could put in a tiny bid and waive DeJesus and his $17 salary and get the same pathetic production for a lower price.
1B Brandon Allen, who was traded to Oakland. Allen is a big boy (6'2", 235) who has shown some serious potential in spurts with Arizona but needs an everyday job. Unfortunately for A's/Squirrels 1B Daric Barton, Allen may get his chance in Oakland. Allen's season so far in Triple A is a thing of beauty:
| Club | Class | AB | H | AVG | OBP | HR | RBI | SB | R | CS | 2B | 3B | BB | K |
| Reno (PCL) | AAA | 305 | 93 | .305 | .426 | 18 | 66 | 7 | 75 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 64 | 90 |
With Josh Bell holding down a CO slot, it will behoove me to put a bid in on Allen. Interestingly, Matt LaPorta was waived in my league this week. At $12, he's not a bad option in OF and can fill a CO slot, too.
There's also OF Alejandro De Aza, who was just called up by the White Sox. This is a rare instance where a rookie wasn't already spoken for in our AL-only. The fact that he's already 27 years old and not considered a prospect has everything to do with that; however, he'll play CF in place of Alex "They Call Her" Rios "and She Dances on the Sand." In any event, A-d-A has 22 SBs and hit .322 at Triple-A, so he's worth a dollar.
There's about an hour left before the trading deadline... I'll post this now and see if the AL gets any more fresh meat!
