Monday, April 6, 2015

Introducing the 2015 Mighty Skwirls

C Zunino 5*
C Joseph         1
2015 Mighty Skwirls
An #ALonly 5x5 roto team
1B Miggy         44
2B B Dozier 1*
SS Xander 5*
3B B Lawrie  23
CI Moustakas  18
MI D Pedrioa  27
OF S Fuld  7
OF Rusney  19
OF A Jackson 25
OF C Rasmus  2*
OF B Holt  3*
UT B Miller 9

SP Samardja  30
SP Sanchez  27
SP Parker  1
SP Buehrle 3*
RP Barnes 1
RP Mujica 3
RP Koji  1*
RP McGee 3*
RP Cook  1*

Farm: Henry Owens*
Farm: Joey Gallo (#1 overall pick.) 

*Keepers.

Overall, I feel the auction went well. I had a software snafu so I couldn't track the other team rosters and money remaining, but I was able to take care of business for my own team with a simple Google spreadsheet. 

I went in with the hammer, i.e., most available cash to spend after keepers, but that didn't last long. Bidding on Miggy stalled at $43, so I was able to re-sign Miggy for $44, a $3 discount from last year. 

Basically, otherwise, I went for offensive upside. This year I decided the post-hype sleeper was where the value is, and I spent the rest of my money on Lawrie, Moustakas, and Miller. If 2 of those guys finally figure it out, I'll be in good shape. 

Letting Kinsler go, I was able to get Pedroia at a discount from last year's salary. Finally healthy for the first time in 2 years, I can see him doubling his HR output this year. #lasershow 

Pitching-wise, simply put, there wasn't much of it available. King Felix went for $44 and Sale $41. I had Samardja at $38 last year, but I threw him back and got him for only $30! I feel like this is a bargain price for 200 strikeouts. Anibal Sanchez similarly should give top-of-the-rotation type numbers for only $27. 

Guys like Verlander, Buchholz, Weaver, Wilson, etc. went for more than I had budgeted, so I decided to zag and spend all my money on hitting. I didn't expect to get Rusney Castillo, but he was "up" at the time of the auction, so I went the extra buck there, locking up a very intriguing prospect for 3 years at a decent salary.  And instead of a middling pitcher, I took Brad Miller near the end. 

With my few remaining dollars, I stole Mujica for $3 (a potential closer for 3!) and took 97MPH Matt Barnes for $1. So I have the Red Sox current closer, incumbent DL'd closer, and perhaps closer of the future for $5, total! 

Jerrod Parker or AJ Griffin? I flipped a coin and went Parker.  Which comes back sooner and does better? We shall see!  Let the games begin!  


Sunday, March 29, 2015

AL-Only: Bounceback, Comeback, Hollaback Boys?

Is it me, or does half the American League seem primed for a bounceback season? There sure were a lot of guys who just didn't perform to expectations last season.

The M*A*S*H Unit 
  • Prince Fielder 
  • Shin-Soo Choo
  • Derek Holland (see a theme here? Poor Texas!) 
  • Matt Wieters 
  • And _________?
The Disappointments 
  • Allen Craig
  • Chris Davis
  • Manny Machado
  • Justin Masterson
  • Kendrys Morales
  • Justin Verlander 
  • Eric Hosmer 
  • And _________?
The Washed-Ups?
  • CC Sabathia
  • Stephen Drew 
  • A-Rod (there's a theme here, too! Heh-heh.)
  • And ________?
Comment below or Tweet me back and LMK who else you think fits above.

One intriguing bounceback possibility is Justin Verlander. PECOTA is predicting a nice comeback for the former Cy Young winner, but everybody else seems to be fixated on his declining velocity, as if it's the smoking gun for his impending demise. And it very well might be. But can't elite power pitchers evolve? When their fastballs aren't so fast, don't they learn to "spot" the 92MPH? You hear it all the time. He was a thrower, now he's a pitcher.

OK, so you point out Verlander had an ugly 1.40 WHIP last season.
PECOTA says: How's 1.20 in 2015 grab you? 
But a crappy 4.54 ERA in 2014. Ugh.
How's 3.30 sound? Now how much would you pay? But wait, there's more! 
And only 159 Ks? Disappointed!
Try 203! Order today!

Throw in the fact that he just wasn't healthy last year -- one might say that this was his core issue -- (#sorry) (#notsorry) and his case for a comeback becomes all the more compelling. I'd also add, he and Kate have to be getting to that point where he's... getting more rest... at night? Right? I mean, right? Seriously? (#justjealous) I'm guessing this is when they met:



Anyway, he went for $37 last year in my AL-only keeper league, making him one of the top 3 pitcher investments. That didn't work out for the unlucky bidder. (C'est moi.) (Although Lester at $23 did. Until, Cubs.) So obviously, I declined to keep him in 2015 and tossed him back into the pool. Now, his average auction price this spring is only $7 -- a full 18 AL pitchers below the average $28 for King Felix. With my inflation rate, I expect he'll go for mid-high teens and deliver good value at that price.

Who do you like as AL Bounceback Player of the Year?