And for good reason! Legends are born in October. Here's hoping this brings us luck in '12.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Sunday, July 31, 2011
MLB Trading Deading Brings Rasmus & Ubaldo!
Good amount of trading this year, but a lot of it was intra-league rather than inter-league, dammit. Colby Rasmus to the Jays is interesting, but finally on Saturday we got a big prize: Ubaldo Jimenez, an all-star starting pitcher, is coming to the AL!
Going from Colorado to, well, anywhere is an improvement for the big righty, and while it's not New York or Boston as was widely speculated, Cleveland is not a bad place to land. The Indians have been the surprise success of the league this year, and just as they were starting to fade, they pulled off this blockbuster of a deal. Good for them. But the big question for us AL-Onliers, "How much FAAB should we spend to get him?"
If you're in-it-to-win-it, obviously you're bidding basically everything you've got. Bear in mind, at this point in the season you're looking at buying about 10 starts, yielding 5 or 6 wins and maybe 60-70 strikeouts. If you're in wait-til-next-year mode, you're got some thinking to do. The fact that Rasmus is also here adds some intrigue to the process. Let's start with Ubaldo.
As my Squirrels are solidly middle of the pack, I've only got the a faint glimmer of hope to finish in the top 4 money slots. So if I'm bidding for an ace to hold and build around for next year, I'm essentially deciding how much he'll go for at auction next spring.
Knowing what he went for in NL-only leagues would be helpful data, except I have no idea where to find that info. [If anybody reading this knows a site that aggregates auction prices, let me know!] Meanwhile, I'll just use my gut. After a few years doing auctions, you get a pretty good feel for what a guy will go for, and my gut says a top-flight pitcher like Ubaldo would go for upper $30s. BTW, I'm ignoring his early season issues and assuming he's more like the 19-game-winning, 200-K guy he was last year, so I'll look at the comps and review the top SPs in the AL this year:
CC Sabbathia $38
Justin Verlander $26
Jeff Weaver $19
Felix Hernandez $33
Dan Haren $37
Jon Lester $39
Of those, only Sabbathia, Haren, and Lester were up for auction this season. (The rest were under older contracts.) So again, you're looking at upper $30s.
Next, I'll check the remaining FAAB for each team. Only one is definitely out of the bidding with only $21 remaining. I've got $51 in the bank. Amazingly, the 2nd place team and the 2nd-to-last place teams both still have a whopping $87 left. One would figure the 2nd place team will break the bank with a FAAB busting bid to put him over the top this season, but he's only got $21 of salary cap space. Nevertheless, I can't let other team's bids affect my valuation for next season, so I'll bid $39 and see what happens!
As for Colby Rasmus, Hardballtimes.com gives a great, detailed overview of Rasmus here for you super-stat-heads. But after adjusting for ballpark effects, breaking down his OPS, and number-crunching his projections, the upshot is what you see is what you get: A solid 20/80 OF, to wit:
OF Kosuke Fukudome, who came to Cleveland. He'll be filling in for Choo, so he'll be playing everyday, but that's about all the nice things I can say about him. It's just hard to get excited about a .260, 10-HR, 50-RBI guy with no speed, no matter how much fun it is to say his name. That said, I suppose I could put in a tiny bid and waive DeJesus and his $17 salary and get the same pathetic production for a lower price.
1B Brandon Allen, who was traded to Oakland. Allen is a big boy (6'2", 235) who has shown some serious potential in spurts with Arizona but needs an everyday job. Unfortunately for A's/Squirrels 1B Daric Barton, Allen may get his chance in Oakland. Allen's season so far in Triple A is a thing of beauty:
With Josh Bell holding down a CO slot, it will behoove me to put a bid in on Allen. Interestingly, Matt LaPorta was waived in my league this week. At $12, he's not a bad option in OF and can fill a CO slot, too.
There's also OF Alejandro De Aza, who was just called up by the White Sox. This is a rare instance where a rookie wasn't already spoken for in our AL-only. The fact that he's already 27 years old and not considered a prospect has everything to do with that; however, he'll play CF in place of Alex "They Call Her" Rios "and She Dances on the Sand." In any event, A-d-A has 22 SBs and hit .322 at Triple-A, so he's worth a dollar.
There's about an hour left before the trading deadline... I'll post this now and see if the AL gets any more fresh meat!
Going from Colorado to, well, anywhere is an improvement for the big righty, and while it's not New York or Boston as was widely speculated, Cleveland is not a bad place to land. The Indians have been the surprise success of the league this year, and just as they were starting to fade, they pulled off this blockbuster of a deal. Good for them. But the big question for us AL-Onliers, "How much FAAB should we spend to get him?"
If you're in-it-to-win-it, obviously you're bidding basically everything you've got. Bear in mind, at this point in the season you're looking at buying about 10 starts, yielding 5 or 6 wins and maybe 60-70 strikeouts. If you're in wait-til-next-year mode, you're got some thinking to do. The fact that Rasmus is also here adds some intrigue to the process. Let's start with Ubaldo.
As my Squirrels are solidly middle of the pack, I've only got the a faint glimmer of hope to finish in the top 4 money slots. So if I'm bidding for an ace to hold and build around for next year, I'm essentially deciding how much he'll go for at auction next spring.
Knowing what he went for in NL-only leagues would be helpful data, except I have no idea where to find that info. [If anybody reading this knows a site that aggregates auction prices, let me know!] Meanwhile, I'll just use my gut. After a few years doing auctions, you get a pretty good feel for what a guy will go for, and my gut says a top-flight pitcher like Ubaldo would go for upper $30s. BTW, I'm ignoring his early season issues and assuming he's more like the 19-game-winning, 200-K guy he was last year, so I'll look at the comps and review the top SPs in the AL this year:
CC Sabbathia $38
Justin Verlander $26
Jeff Weaver $19
Felix Hernandez $33
Dan Haren $37
Jon Lester $39
Of those, only Sabbathia, Haren, and Lester were up for auction this season. (The rest were under older contracts.) So again, you're looking at upper $30s.
Next, I'll check the remaining FAAB for each team. Only one is definitely out of the bidding with only $21 remaining. I've got $51 in the bank. Amazingly, the 2nd place team and the 2nd-to-last place teams both still have a whopping $87 left. One would figure the 2nd place team will break the bank with a FAAB busting bid to put him over the top this season, but he's only got $21 of salary cap space. Nevertheless, I can't let other team's bids affect my valuation for next season, so I'll bid $39 and see what happens!
As for Colby Rasmus, Hardballtimes.com gives a great, detailed overview of Rasmus here for you super-stat-heads. But after adjusting for ballpark effects, breaking down his OPS, and number-crunching his projections, the upshot is what you see is what you get: A solid 20/80 OF, to wit:
As a fantasy hitter, Rasmus is still overrated, particularly in 5x5 standard leagues. Rasmus is more likely to remain a 20-25 home run hitter going forward, but he is still only a .260/23 HR/11 SB type batter. That kind of production is valuable, but probably not top-36 (OF3) material. Rasmus is a brand-name player who was drafted as a top-25 outfielder and top-100 overall player this year, and given that kind of love, he is unlikely to be someone to turn a profit and is probably capable of returning a loss.Other new AL FAAB targets include:
OF Kosuke Fukudome, who came to Cleveland. He'll be filling in for Choo, so he'll be playing everyday, but that's about all the nice things I can say about him. It's just hard to get excited about a .260, 10-HR, 50-RBI guy with no speed, no matter how much fun it is to say his name. That said, I suppose I could put in a tiny bid and waive DeJesus and his $17 salary and get the same pathetic production for a lower price.
1B Brandon Allen, who was traded to Oakland. Allen is a big boy (6'2", 235) who has shown some serious potential in spurts with Arizona but needs an everyday job. Unfortunately for A's/Squirrels 1B Daric Barton, Allen may get his chance in Oakland. Allen's season so far in Triple A is a thing of beauty:
| Club | Class | AB | H | AVG | OBP | HR | RBI | SB | R | CS | 2B | 3B | BB | K |
| Reno (PCL) | AAA | 305 | 93 | .305 | .426 | 18 | 66 | 7 | 75 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 64 | 90 |
With Josh Bell holding down a CO slot, it will behoove me to put a bid in on Allen. Interestingly, Matt LaPorta was waived in my league this week. At $12, he's not a bad option in OF and can fill a CO slot, too.
There's also OF Alejandro De Aza, who was just called up by the White Sox. This is a rare instance where a rookie wasn't already spoken for in our AL-only. The fact that he's already 27 years old and not considered a prospect has everything to do with that; however, he'll play CF in place of Alex "They Call Her" Rios "and She Dances on the Sand." In any event, A-d-A has 22 SBs and hit .322 at Triple-A, so he's worth a dollar.
There's about an hour left before the trading deadline... I'll post this now and see if the AL gets any more fresh meat!
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Aother Major Trade Announcement
So MT Baker, the 5th place team quite in the hunt, approached me last week and asked if I'd be interested in Jeremy Hellickson.
As a $1 with an L2 contract, he's the type of guy teams in this league keep. Not just keep, but treasure! And as such, he's not the kind of guy I would even think to ask for in a trade. So this was an unexpected surprise. When he mentioned troubled Juan Pierre in the same breath as Miggy Cabrera as a potential trade, I knew we had a live one. Miggy is perhaps the best hitter in the AL, while Pierre has been a source of frustration all season, stealing only 10 bases thus far this season. I'm still a believer and expect he'll have a nice 2nd half, but OTOH, I'm happy to deal him.
The only catch? He also wanted Colby Lewis, who has been a steady source of Ks and Ws for the Skwirls since I drafted him last spring. At only $6, I wasn't happy about giving him up, but he made me an offer I that in the end, I couldn't refuse:
David Murphy ($11), Jeremy Hellickson ($1), Brett Anderson ($10 but option year, can't keep) and a #2 draft pick to the Skwirls for Juan Pierre and Colby Lewis.
In his first start as a Skwirl, Hellickson had mixed results -- he gave up 4 runs on a career-high 9 hits, but also struck out 9. He threw the ball well, and the ball seems to jump out of his hand. He could be a $1 ace for the Skwirls next year.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Week 12: Andrew Miller, Joey Devine, and Jason Varitek
I was going to bid $10 initially. I thought that was a good, gut-feeling bid. Then I started researching him, and when I typed in my request, I put $7. Well, bidding went through and the winning bid was... you guessed it: $10. Worse yet, it was made by the team directly in front of me in 6th place. (In the event of a tie bid, the lower ranked team in the standings gets the guy.) Lesson learned: Go with your initial gut instinct and don't overthink it.
What do we make of Miller's prospects? I'm always a big fan of the top draft pick (1st rounder, 6th overall) coming back to the majors a third time -- a little more humble and a little more hungry. After his typical wildness to start the season, he was putting up stupid numbers lately in Pawtucket. In his last four starts, he had a 1.78 ERA and in 25 IP, he allowed 17 hits, 3 walks, and struck out 26! Now he's up to take two starts for Boston in place of Clay Buchholz (DL-back strain-he'll be fine). Miller's match-ups are ideal (SD and Pitt) and with the potent Bosox lineup, I like him a lot for this week. His long-term prospects are anybody's guess. Here are some now:
The consolation prize in this week's FAAB festivities was Joey Devine, who I wanted earlier in the year but missed out on. Somewhere along the line he was waived, and I got my 2nd chance at him. I dropped his bullpen-mate Michael Wuertz for him. Weurtz was not delivering what I needed, namely the microscopic ERA and WHIP numbers needed to offset ugly starts.
Now that I've got Devine, I will probably hold onto him for the duration. His numbers are sick! Check this out:
2.45 ERA / 0.95 WHIP / 13 Ks in 14 IP.
Now check out his line from the minor league rehab:
3 W / 3 SV / 0.00 ERA / 0.41 WHIP / 17 Ks in 12 IP.
Fluke? His 2008 campaign (before surgery) was just as sick:
6 W / 1 SV / 0.59 ERA / 0.84 WHIP / 49 Ks in 45 IP.
Set-up guys like him are gold, Jerry, gold! They can vulture you a win or a save, but their real value is in the ratios, where over time they can serve to clean up some ugly starts. Or in my case, some bad middle relief:
Jenks 9.35 ERA / 2.53 WHIP
Dotel 7.45 / 2.06
Perry 10.00 / 2.33
Wuertz 5.79 / 1.50
Eesh, thanks for nothing guys. Joey, you've got some work to do.
Jason Varitek
I also picked up Tek for a buck. He was sitting on the waiver wire all season. I kept Jake Fox in that 2nd catcher slot thinking something good would happen with him, and now that he's in the minors, I can simply reserve him and add Tek who, for all his offensive limitations, has the most HRs (3) and RBI (15) off all waiver-wire players in our league. He doesn't play enough to really hurt the Skwirl's batting average, and he can add a dinger and some ribbies here or there in the counting stats.
Of course the big news at catcher is that I got Joe Mauer back. (Way to bury the lead there Scott!) Mauer may prove to be the secret weapon I need to move into the lead pack.
During the week, I also slotted Scott Sizemore into the 2B position and dropped Andino, who contributed a measly .208 with 2 RBI and 6 runs scored to the effort.
Back to FAAB, I told a dollar flier on Graham Godfrey, too, but didn't get him. He's not a prospect, per se, but he does pitch in Oakland, which makes anybody look pretty good, right Vin Mazzaro?
Zach Stewart is another under-the-radar rookie starting pitcher. Our league made no bids on him whatsover, despite his 7 IP / 2 ER debut. As a former 3rd round pick, he's one to keep an eye on.
Andrew Miller (1/16)Remember Miller? The Tigers former first round pick looks like he's going to get the call and start for the Red Sox on Monday versus the Padres. This would make Miller a two-start pitcher for Week 12 if the Red Sox don't skip Miller's turn. Miller's numbers at AAA Pawtucket have been phenomenal, and while he seems like a mega flop, he's only 26 years old. The downside to Miller is that he's never been consistent in the Majors and his stuff was never as good as advertised. Miller's a worthy gamble in deep leagues; in mixed leagues you'll want to take a wait-and-see approach. (Mike Gianella)
Miller fanned 10 batters in his last start for Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday, as he continued to throw well before the promotion. Fantasy owners might remember the much-hyped lefty from his days as a Florida Marlin or Detroit Tiger, though he didn't have much success with either team. He was expected to start and get in the mix for the rotation regardless of any other starter's status, but the DL stint for Buchholz all but guarantees the 6-foot-7 starter to get at least two starts barring a huge letdown. Consider the 26-year-old to be a rising option for now, though his 15-26 career record and 5.84 ERA are not inciting enough to rely on him in any leagues other than AL-only formats for now. (CBS Sports)For a great overview on this enigmatic lefty (aren't they all!), check out this great blog entry from Gordon Edes on ESPN. There's an even better one by Edes here, which tells the story of a Cape Cod League game in which Miller struck out 12 batters in a row... and was called on account of fog!
The consolation prize in this week's FAAB festivities was Joey Devine, who I wanted earlier in the year but missed out on. Somewhere along the line he was waived, and I got my 2nd chance at him. I dropped his bullpen-mate Michael Wuertz for him. Weurtz was not delivering what I needed, namely the microscopic ERA and WHIP numbers needed to offset ugly starts.
Now that I've got Devine, I will probably hold onto him for the duration. His numbers are sick! Check this out:
2.45 ERA / 0.95 WHIP / 13 Ks in 14 IP.
Now check out his line from the minor league rehab:
3 W / 3 SV / 0.00 ERA / 0.41 WHIP / 17 Ks in 12 IP.
Fluke? His 2008 campaign (before surgery) was just as sick:
6 W / 1 SV / 0.59 ERA / 0.84 WHIP / 49 Ks in 45 IP.
Set-up guys like him are gold, Jerry, gold! They can vulture you a win or a save, but their real value is in the ratios, where over time they can serve to clean up some ugly starts. Or in my case, some bad middle relief:
Jenks 9.35 ERA / 2.53 WHIP
Dotel 7.45 / 2.06
Perry 10.00 / 2.33
Wuertz 5.79 / 1.50
Eesh, thanks for nothing guys. Joey, you've got some work to do.
Jason Varitek
I also picked up Tek for a buck. He was sitting on the waiver wire all season. I kept Jake Fox in that 2nd catcher slot thinking something good would happen with him, and now that he's in the minors, I can simply reserve him and add Tek who, for all his offensive limitations, has the most HRs (3) and RBI (15) off all waiver-wire players in our league. He doesn't play enough to really hurt the Skwirl's batting average, and he can add a dinger and some ribbies here or there in the counting stats.
Of course the big news at catcher is that I got Joe Mauer back. (Way to bury the lead there Scott!) Mauer may prove to be the secret weapon I need to move into the lead pack.
During the week, I also slotted Scott Sizemore into the 2B position and dropped Andino, who contributed a measly .208 with 2 RBI and 6 runs scored to the effort.
Back to FAAB, I told a dollar flier on Graham Godfrey, too, but didn't get him. He's not a prospect, per se, but he does pitch in Oakland, which makes anybody look pretty good, right Vin Mazzaro?
Zach Stewart is another under-the-radar rookie starting pitcher. Our league made no bids on him whatsover, despite his 7 IP / 2 ER debut. As a former 3rd round pick, he's one to keep an eye on.
Monday, June 6, 2011
So much good news!
The Skwirls have moved up to 6th place with 70 points!
We have been on a steady march up the standings for weeks now. This past week, we won the HR (13) RBI (45) and Runs scored (52) categories. We also won the Wins (5) and WHIP (1.05) cats, with strong showings in all the other categories.
Hell, we even picked up our first save of the season! That broke the tie for last place and gave us a half-point. Thank you Daniel Bard, at $14 the most overpaid set-up guy in the league by far. (I bid him up this year thinking about next year, when he could be an attractively priced closer.)
The news wasn't all good this past week, however. I did receive a bit of a shock when Jake Fox was waived by the O's. It's never a good sign when a guy you own in fantasy isn't even good enough for his team in real life. But that's life in AL-only sometimes. The deal on him is basically the wants (and needs) more playing time, and he feels his sporadic PT is responsible for his .188 BA. So he was designated and, according to reports, will likely be traded. Given that he's got serious pop (10 homers in Spring Training) and qualifies at C, I'll just keep him and see what happens.
When you consider that I've gotten essentially nothing from my 2 catcher slots, my recent surge in the standings is all the more heartening. To add a guy like Joe Mauer sometime this month will be the equivalent of making another blockbuster trade.
Speaking of which, Miguel Caberera is good. Really good. Since I traded for him, he's hit 5 homers and has 13 RBI... in 13 games. On the flip side, Mark Trumbo has 4 homers, and Franklin Gutierrez has 1. So I guess we're even. Nice trade so far for both sides, but Miggy's BA is way higher.
And the trade I didn't make? Juan Pierre is really heating up, scoring 10 runs in his last 11 games and stealing 2 bags, and (get THIS) hitting his first home run of the year. The window to buy him at a discount is closing.
Andino scored 4 runs this week but hit only .208.
One to Watch: SS Yunel Escobar. Scored him with FAAB last season for a reasonable $12, and kept him -- that move is really paying off. Offered him for Papelbon recently and am now rethinking the wisdom of that. Overshadowed on my team and in AL-only fantasy in general by the mighty Asdrubal Cabrera, Escobar has quietly put up some very nice numbers himself: .290 / 7 HR / 24 RBI / 36 R / 1 SB Bear in mind, his .256 last year is the outlier in his career thus far (.326 .288 .299). That's a career .289, and he's hitting .290, so... there you go.
1B Daric Barton was an absolute pest in Fenway this weekend, with 2 hits in all 3 games. He looked very comfortable hitting in the Cozy Confines, taking the ball the other way off the Green Monster. The announcers on radio and TV kept ragging on him for his low batting average and lack of a single home run, but this is a guy who hit 10 last year and walked over 100 times. He's not a slouch. He's just off to a pathetically slow start, and I think playing in Oakland is a real detriment to his style of hitting. He's an everyday player at $6; a good AL-only team needs a couple of those slot-fillers.
RP Al Alburquerque turned out to be a brilliant move, as he vultured not one but two (2!) wins in relief immediately after I rostered him. That's just the way I drew it up on on the chalkboard.
We have been on a steady march up the standings for weeks now. This past week, we won the HR (13) RBI (45) and Runs scored (52) categories. We also won the Wins (5) and WHIP (1.05) cats, with strong showings in all the other categories.
Hell, we even picked up our first save of the season! That broke the tie for last place and gave us a half-point. Thank you Daniel Bard, at $14 the most overpaid set-up guy in the league by far. (I bid him up this year thinking about next year, when he could be an attractively priced closer.)
The news wasn't all good this past week, however. I did receive a bit of a shock when Jake Fox was waived by the O's. It's never a good sign when a guy you own in fantasy isn't even good enough for his team in real life. But that's life in AL-only sometimes. The deal on him is basically the wants (and needs) more playing time, and he feels his sporadic PT is responsible for his .188 BA. So he was designated and, according to reports, will likely be traded. Given that he's got serious pop (10 homers in Spring Training) and qualifies at C, I'll just keep him and see what happens.
When you consider that I've gotten essentially nothing from my 2 catcher slots, my recent surge in the standings is all the more heartening. To add a guy like Joe Mauer sometime this month will be the equivalent of making another blockbuster trade.
Speaking of which, Miguel Caberera is good. Really good. Since I traded for him, he's hit 5 homers and has 13 RBI... in 13 games. On the flip side, Mark Trumbo has 4 homers, and Franklin Gutierrez has 1. So I guess we're even. Nice trade so far for both sides, but Miggy's BA is way higher.
And the trade I didn't make? Juan Pierre is really heating up, scoring 10 runs in his last 11 games and stealing 2 bags, and (get THIS) hitting his first home run of the year. The window to buy him at a discount is closing.
Andino scored 4 runs this week but hit only .208.
One to Watch: SS Yunel Escobar. Scored him with FAAB last season for a reasonable $12, and kept him -- that move is really paying off. Offered him for Papelbon recently and am now rethinking the wisdom of that. Overshadowed on my team and in AL-only fantasy in general by the mighty Asdrubal Cabrera, Escobar has quietly put up some very nice numbers himself: .290 / 7 HR / 24 RBI / 36 R / 1 SB Bear in mind, his .256 last year is the outlier in his career thus far (.326 .288 .299). That's a career .289, and he's hitting .290, so... there you go.
1B Daric Barton was an absolute pest in Fenway this weekend, with 2 hits in all 3 games. He looked very comfortable hitting in the Cozy Confines, taking the ball the other way off the Green Monster. The announcers on radio and TV kept ragging on him for his low batting average and lack of a single home run, but this is a guy who hit 10 last year and walked over 100 times. He's not a slouch. He's just off to a pathetically slow start, and I think playing in Oakland is a real detriment to his style of hitting. He's an everyday player at $6; a good AL-only team needs a couple of those slot-fillers.
RP Al Alburquerque turned out to be a brilliant move, as he vultured not one but two (2!) wins in relief immediately after I rostered him. That's just the way I drew it up on on the chalkboard.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Movin' on Up!
This week saw a dramatic rise in the fortunes of the Skiing Skwirls. We're now solidly middle-class! Much like the Red Sox IRL, the Skwirls started off pathetically slow, but are now turning it on. Patience is a very difficult skill to learn, and I'm only starting to get the hang of it after 7 years of fantasy managing. Despite my issues at auction, I drafted what I thought was a competitive team. The fact that I was in last place after the first month wasn't so much a reflection of the players I fielded but of their collective performance at that time. I haven't stood pat -- I've made moves nearly every week, plus my blockbuster trade -- but I haven't cleaned house either, and it's starting to pay dividends.
Week 9 Roster Moves:
ADD J. Outman ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD A. Albuqueque ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Hill ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Andino ($3) and RES S. Sizemore
Slowey is slowly looking like someone who isn't going to help me this year; his listing as disabled opened up a pitching slot.
I made a low bid on Outman, who I'm not sold on, despite his fortuitous surname. Three other teams bid on him; winner paid $7.
So I got my second choice, Al "Must've Taken a Wrong Turn at" Alburquerque. I've been watching AA for a few weeks now; his stats are stupid: 26 Ks in only 15 innings! His worst outing was a 2 hit, 2 walk debacle against the Red Sox that cost him his only L so far. (If he pitches lights out against everybody in the AL except Boston, that would suit me just fine!)
My other roster move was a worst-case scenario. My Quixotic $20 bid for 2B Scott Sizemore resulted in this bad news:
So it's come to this at 2B: Robert Andino.
Not sure what's he's smiling about: He's a 27-year-old fill-in middle infielder who seems to offer neither speed nor power. In 6 years of part-time playing time in the majors, his high-water mark for the season in RBI is... 10. Eeesh. Some teams simply leave the slot filled with a guy who's hurt or sent down, but I don't subscribe to that way of thinking. I use these opportunities to more control players, and hopefully add to my counting stats in small increments without hurting the team BA too much. In a 12-team AL-only, there are rarely starters available on waivers, but with Brian Roberts out indefinitely (shocking, I know) Andino is the man at second in Baltimore. Here's the preseason take on him from CBSSports:
Week 9 Roster Moves:
ADD J. Outman ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD A. Albuqueque ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Hill ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Andino ($3) and RES S. Sizemore
Slowey is slowly looking like someone who isn't going to help me this year; his listing as disabled opened up a pitching slot.
I made a low bid on Outman, who I'm not sold on, despite his fortuitous surname. Three other teams bid on him; winner paid $7.
So I got my second choice, Al "Must've Taken a Wrong Turn at" Alburquerque. I've been watching AA for a few weeks now; his stats are stupid: 26 Ks in only 15 innings! His worst outing was a 2 hit, 2 walk debacle against the Red Sox that cost him his only L so far. (If he pitches lights out against everybody in the AL except Boston, that would suit me just fine!)
My other roster move was a worst-case scenario. My Quixotic $20 bid for 2B Scott Sizemore resulted in this bad news:
Friday May. 27, 2011 Athletics acquired 2B Scott Sizemore from the Tigers for LHP David Purcey; optioned him to Triple-A Sacramento.Shocked and dismayed I was. The couple weeks with SS netted me 4 RBI, 8 runs, and a steal. Looks like he'll fit right in with the A's, as none of them can hit, either. (Bad-da-dum!)
Well, this comes as a surprise. Sizemore was batting just .222 with one double and four RBI over his first 63 at-bats this season, but we still think he deserved a longer look in Detroit. Mark Ellis has really struggled offensively this season, but it's not clear if Sizemore will get much of an opportunity in Oakland, either. At least not immediately.
So it's come to this at 2B: Robert Andino.
After playing in a career-high 78 games and seeing 198 at-bats in 2009, Robert Andino saw a reduced role last season but did well in his limited opportunities. He hit .295 with two home runs and six RBI in 61 at-bats. The 26-year-old is better known for his defense and has not seen enough playing time in the majors to warrant serious Fantasy ownership. Heading in 2011, Andino -- a career .226 hitter -- will have to fight to remain on the Orioles' roster as a utility infielder. Keep an eye on how he does in the spring but plan on ignoring Andino in the majority of Fantasy formats on Draft Day. (Updated 2/8/11)However, he did post a respectable 13 HR / 76 RBI / 16 SB season at Triple-A Norfolk. He only batted .264 with a rotten 110/29 K/BB split, but I'd take it.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Whither Juan?
Today he expounded on the Pierre Problem in his blog. Granted, MG netted Edwin Jackson, a CHI-A for CHI-A deal that I would've probably considered myself. But frankly, while I'm disappointed with his 7 steals thus far, I don't get the hateration Pierre's garnering lately.
Clearly, fantasy owners are getting impatient: Pierre's ownership is down to 69% in ESPN, 67% in CBS. But are things really that bad?
Here are some recent player news snippets:
ESPN Rotowire
All-Star Sports/MSNBCPierre went 1-for-4 with a steal and a run scored in the White Sox's win Tuesday.Spin:Normally, a steal is not a big deal for Pierre. However, this was his first attempt since May 3. It was probably important for Pierre's confidence that he be successful on this try.Tue, May 24
Wednesday May. 11, 2011 Juan Pierre went 0-for-4 in Tuesday's loss, dropping his average to .243.CBSSports.com
How much longer can the White Sox afford to stick with Pierre? He's never been a very good player unless he's hitting close to .300, and he's far south of that. He's also been thrown out on eight of his 14 steal attempts, and he's scored just 13 times in 36 games, though the guys below him deserve credit there as well. Manager Ozzie Guillen is in his corner, so Pierre is likely safe for a little while longer. The White Sox, though, may want to try Dayan Viciedo in left field later on.
CBS is the most sanguine about Pierre's prospects, but there's more haterde than lemonade being served here. Yes, he hadn't attempted a steal since May 3 until last night's successful swipe. And yes he's been caught a lot this year. And yes, if you're a one-trick pony, and that trick is SBs, you've got to do better in the base-stealing dept.White Sox left fielder Juan Pierre went 3 for 4 at the dish with two runs scored in the team's win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Pierre has a five-game hitting streak, and it's one that's boosting his batting average as he's gone 9 for 23 (.391) with five runs scored. His batting average is up to .288 on the year because of it.
(Updated 05/23/2011).Fantasy AnalysisRight around the start of this mini-streak, manager Ozzie Guillen spoke publicly about moving Pierre down in the order. Pierre has seemingly responded and would need a big drop in production to lose his top spot. As of now, Pierre is a low- to mid-range option for the short term in most formats, but if he keeps this up then he'll open doors for himself in all leagues.
But when all the market indicators are pointing one way, it's often a good time to look in the other direction. So here's my rebuttal to the haters, at least as it pertains to an AL-only league.
- Pierre's not not-hitting: He's got 10-game hitting streak going. (Notice Mike didn't mention that factoid.)
- He's extremely durable: 9 of the last 10 years he's played more than 140 games, including five (5!) max-162s in a row, and 160 last season.
- Consistent, too: He's always a better-than-average source for runs, batting average, and steals.
Here's JP's 5x5 line thus far:
19 R / 0 HR / 10 RBI / 8 SB / .261 AVG
At 51 games and 199 ABs, we can do napkin math and treble those numbers for his on-pace final line:
56 R / 0 HR / 30 RBI / 24 SB / .261 AVG
This is well under his lifetime average and his 2011 projections. The fewest he's stolen is 30 in 2009 with LA. His lifetime BA is .291 with 44 bags per season. So he's clearly struggled to start the season, but even at this pace, 24 bags is 24 bags.
Are his steals down because of his age? Baseball Reference comp Willie Wilson was stealing second successfully until he was 36, and although it seems he's been around forever, Pierre is only 33. Again, Pierre is consistent, and he's durable.
It's more likely there are other factors in play with his stealing slump... team's offensive struggles, cold weather, fewer favorable in-game situations, temporary loss in confidence, minor injury? Hard to say, but in short, he's simply too good at stealing bases to be this inept at stealing bases.
Let's take a look at the preseason projections:
ESPN's computations called for 49 SB and a .280 BA.They could all be wrong. Pierre could be in steep decline. But I don't think so. As the weather warms, so does Juan. In his 3-year splits, his worst batting average months are April and September, while May and June are his best months for stealing bases.
SportingNews had him at 61 and .275.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Guide had 51 and .282.
CBSSports expected 54 and .273.
So, I say hold onto the active leader in steals (534) for another month. Exercise some patience. Channel your inner Tito Francona. Field inquiries and put out some feelers, sure, but don't dump him just yet. Steals, like homers, can come in bunches, and you don't want to see those steals on the waiver wire, or worse yet, in your opponent's SB column. If anything, this could be a trading (or waiver wire adding) opportunity.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Week 8: Major Trade Announcement!
Gettin' Jiggy wit Miggy
The last place team in my AL-only had decided to throw in the towel on this season and rebuild for next year. "Young and cheap" was his mantra in his league-wide e-mail. I took a look at his roster like a kid in the proverbial candy store... although as a kid, I tended ignore most of the candy and to go straight for the baseball cards.
At first, I started putting together an offer for Frank Francisco, since I have 0 (count 'em, zero) saves. I guess I took "don't pay for saves" too literally this year. I noted in my e-mail PS that Trumbo ($6) and Ogando ($2) would probably be off-limits, but was willing to discuss other young and cheap players. But I difficulty making an offer that made sense there, I soon turned to the crown jewel on his roster: Miguel Cabrera. Figure, he's cleaning house, can't hurt to ask.
I wanted to put together a deal including 1B Daric Barton, who I had tied up with 2-year extension at only $6, but although a solid AL-only guy, his trade value is as low as his batting average right now. Trumbo was a piece I hated to part with, but when you are asking for perhaps the premier offensive player in the league, you've got to give to get. Because of roster integrity issues (do you have roster integrity rules in your league? I find them annoying), the deal went through several permutations before we settled on the final deal: Miggy for Trumbo and OF Franklin Gutierrez.
Gutierrez was another late-auction sleeper I stole for only $9. With Gutirrez coming off the DL, I had too many OFs anyway, so he was expendable. With Trumbo's solid start, and Kendry Morales going down for the year, his trade value was high. I believe in him, and true power hitters are hard to come by, but I also believe he'll hit his Rookie Rut here soon, and I'm very wary of the Sophomore Slump. As such, I banked his 7 homers (and 3 steals!) and got "Jiggy wit Miggy."
I feel like I stole Cabrera; what do you think? Even at $47, I might keep him next year. Or I might flip him for Youkilis. I admit I was leery of Miggy after his off-season issues, but they don't seem to be affecting him at the plate. I fully expect him to net the 38 / 118 / .331 line ESPN projected for him, which would mean 30 HR and 80 RBI for me for the rest of the way. Will Trumbo and Gutierrez net that production, and hit well over .300?
The Other Cabrera
Meanwhile, my SS Asdrubal Cabrera was the Fantasy 411's Weekend ROTO MONSTER, going off on Sunday with a 5 for 5 day, 2 homers, and a steal. (A tip of the cap to my little brother for urging me to pursue him on auction day. I got him for $23 in our high-inflation league.) Mike Siano had him as a "sleeper SS," and called his breakout season a "Bautista-type year." He's looking like an easy 20-20 guy, and lest you forget, he's only 25 years old! He's a keeper, kids.
So I guess now with Miggy and Asdrubal, all I need is Melky and Orlando to round out my All-Cabrera Team. Could do worse...
The last place team in my AL-only had decided to throw in the towel on this season and rebuild for next year. "Young and cheap" was his mantra in his league-wide e-mail. I took a look at his roster like a kid in the proverbial candy store... although as a kid, I tended ignore most of the candy and to go straight for the baseball cards.
At first, I started putting together an offer for Frank Francisco, since I have 0 (count 'em, zero) saves. I guess I took "don't pay for saves" too literally this year. I noted in my e-mail PS that Trumbo ($6) and Ogando ($2) would probably be off-limits, but was willing to discuss other young and cheap players. But I difficulty making an offer that made sense there, I soon turned to the crown jewel on his roster: Miguel Cabrera. Figure, he's cleaning house, can't hurt to ask.
I wanted to put together a deal including 1B Daric Barton, who I had tied up with 2-year extension at only $6, but although a solid AL-only guy, his trade value is as low as his batting average right now. Trumbo was a piece I hated to part with, but when you are asking for perhaps the premier offensive player in the league, you've got to give to get. Because of roster integrity issues (do you have roster integrity rules in your league? I find them annoying), the deal went through several permutations before we settled on the final deal: Miggy for Trumbo and OF Franklin Gutierrez.
Gutierrez was another late-auction sleeper I stole for only $9. With Gutirrez coming off the DL, I had too many OFs anyway, so he was expendable. With Trumbo's solid start, and Kendry Morales going down for the year, his trade value was high. I believe in him, and true power hitters are hard to come by, but I also believe he'll hit his Rookie Rut here soon, and I'm very wary of the Sophomore Slump. As such, I banked his 7 homers (and 3 steals!) and got "Jiggy wit Miggy."
I feel like I stole Cabrera; what do you think? Even at $47, I might keep him next year. Or I might flip him for Youkilis. I admit I was leery of Miggy after his off-season issues, but they don't seem to be affecting him at the plate. I fully expect him to net the 38 / 118 / .331 line ESPN projected for him, which would mean 30 HR and 80 RBI for me for the rest of the way. Will Trumbo and Gutierrez net that production, and hit well over .300?
 | |
| Miguel gets tagged out by Asdrubal |
Meanwhile, my SS Asdrubal Cabrera was the Fantasy 411's Weekend ROTO MONSTER, going off on Sunday with a 5 for 5 day, 2 homers, and a steal. (A tip of the cap to my little brother for urging me to pursue him on auction day. I got him for $23 in our high-inflation league.) Mike Siano had him as a "sleeper SS," and called his breakout season a "Bautista-type year." He's looking like an easy 20-20 guy, and lest you forget, he's only 25 years old! He's a keeper, kids.
So I guess now with Miggy and Asdrubal, all I need is Melky and Orlando to round out my All-Cabrera Team. Could do worse...
Monday, May 16, 2011
Week 7: More Winning Bids, or Fun with FAAB
I promised myself this year I'd be more aggressive spending FAAB. I've come to realize there's simply no sense in leaving that money on the table. I mean, what was I saving my FAAB for anyway? I thought it was for that big inter-league trade or hot rookie call-up. Turns out, most of the top prospects were already locked up on the farm of somebody else's team. (We do 2 rounds of rookie draft after auction.) And hoping for another Cliff Lee trade, just so I could bid on him, against 11 other guys, frankly isn't a winning strategy.
The first couple years of my AL-only experience, I was a careful spender, trying to only bid for players I really believed in. I carefully researched them, and if I was confident, I would make a bid. But then I'd bid a dollar and lose him. Or I'd bid more, but not enough. I told myself it was OK, he wasn't worth it, my roster's fine as it is, etc. But I didn't have the player, so I hadn't improved my team, and I wasn't getting the stats; meanwhile, another team had improved itself, and was getting the stats.
I finally broke through with Bengie Molina last year. I liked him going to a hitter's park in Texas, I liked his pedigree of steady production in the big leagues, and I liked the playing time he was going to get. He seemed a very safe bet to be productive in the home stretch of the season. I "broke the bank" for him and bid $20 big ones. What the hell, right? Well, I won him!
He turned out to be... a total bust. But it was a bold move that, if he had produced as expected, could've made all the difference and gotten me to finish in the money. More importantly, I got a taste for blood. I had won a blind auction with a big bid! It was a small victory in an otherwise losing season.
We're given a $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget, and this year, I intend to use it. Last week, I made what another league owner called a "quixotic" $20 bid for Scott Sizemore, besting his own bid of $18. While his team sat pretty in 2nd place, my team wallowed in the basement. Why then was I making such a grand gesture, he asked? Lots of reasons:
Sizemore is a starting middle infielder, hitting 2nd in front of Miggy Cabrera. Just that makes him worth a flier this year with FAAB money. And if he goes let's say... 10/60/.270 with 10 steals, I'd consider keeping him at that salary next year. He doesn't sound like a keeper at $20, but consider how few starting players are available in a 12-team AL-only league. Consider Nishioka went for $21, Pedroia $30, and Macier Izturis went for $12 at auction. Productive middle infielders are hard to find! Moreover, anticipating my enemy's strategies, and then countering them, is a tried-and-true tenet of Tzu's Art of War. That is to say, a player on my team is a player not on my opponent's team. Worst case, if my team doesn't turn it around, he'll be attractive trade bait when you consider how many other teams wanted and bid on him.
With all that said, in Week 7 I made (and won) the following bids:
Andy Dirks - Skwirls:9, Usuals:6
Carlos Peguero - Skwirls:7, Liefers:3, Chaos:2
Tim Collins - Skwirls:1*, Owls:1, Highlanders:1
*Lower in standings wins.
My aggressiveness once again paid off. Let's review them quickly.
Andy Dirks (not to be confused with Andy Dick) gets the chance to play (we hope) now that Magglio Ordonez finally hit the DL. Clearly, Mags' ankle was not better and his pathetic statistics thus far prove it. Dirks is a "non-propsect" late bloomer getting his first shot at the bigs. I can see a Brandon Boesch/Nolan Reimold type potential here.
Carlos Peguero is that "top prospect" you've never heard of. All of a sudden, he's the "top prospect in the Seattle organization" and possesses prodigious power. On the crawl on ESPN last night, it said his homer was the one of the longest in the league so far... take a look.
Tim Collins is a special case, a 5'7" little lefty who brings it in the mid 90's MPH. He's the shortest, and at 21, youngest, player to make an MLB roster this year. At a Flutiesque 5'7.75" myself, I always root for the underdog.
The first couple years of my AL-only experience, I was a careful spender, trying to only bid for players I really believed in. I carefully researched them, and if I was confident, I would make a bid. But then I'd bid a dollar and lose him. Or I'd bid more, but not enough. I told myself it was OK, he wasn't worth it, my roster's fine as it is, etc. But I didn't have the player, so I hadn't improved my team, and I wasn't getting the stats; meanwhile, another team had improved itself, and was getting the stats.
I finally broke through with Bengie Molina last year. I liked him going to a hitter's park in Texas, I liked his pedigree of steady production in the big leagues, and I liked the playing time he was going to get. He seemed a very safe bet to be productive in the home stretch of the season. I "broke the bank" for him and bid $20 big ones. What the hell, right? Well, I won him!
He turned out to be... a total bust. But it was a bold move that, if he had produced as expected, could've made all the difference and gotten me to finish in the money. More importantly, I got a taste for blood. I had won a blind auction with a big bid! It was a small victory in an otherwise losing season.
We're given a $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget, and this year, I intend to use it. Last week, I made what another league owner called a "quixotic" $20 bid for Scott Sizemore, besting his own bid of $18. While his team sat pretty in 2nd place, my team wallowed in the basement. Why then was I making such a grand gesture, he asked? Lots of reasons:
Sizemore is a starting middle infielder, hitting 2nd in front of Miggy Cabrera. Just that makes him worth a flier this year with FAAB money. And if he goes let's say... 10/60/.270 with 10 steals, I'd consider keeping him at that salary next year. He doesn't sound like a keeper at $20, but consider how few starting players are available in a 12-team AL-only league. Consider Nishioka went for $21, Pedroia $30, and Macier Izturis went for $12 at auction. Productive middle infielders are hard to find! Moreover, anticipating my enemy's strategies, and then countering them, is a tried-and-true tenet of Tzu's Art of War. That is to say, a player on my team is a player not on my opponent's team. Worst case, if my team doesn't turn it around, he'll be attractive trade bait when you consider how many other teams wanted and bid on him.
With all that said, in Week 7 I made (and won) the following bids:
Andy Dirks - Skwirls:9, Usuals:6
Carlos Peguero - Skwirls:7, Liefers:3, Chaos:2
Tim Collins - Skwirls:1*, Owls:1, Highlanders:1
*Lower in standings wins.
My aggressiveness once again paid off. Let's review them quickly.
Andy Dirks (not to be confused with Andy Dick) gets the chance to play (we hope) now that Magglio Ordonez finally hit the DL. Clearly, Mags' ankle was not better and his pathetic statistics thus far prove it. Dirks is a "non-propsect" late bloomer getting his first shot at the bigs. I can see a Brandon Boesch/Nolan Reimold type potential here. Carlos Peguero is that "top prospect" you've never heard of. All of a sudden, he's the "top prospect in the Seattle organization" and possesses prodigious power. On the crawl on ESPN last night, it said his homer was the one of the longest in the league so far... take a look.
Tim Collins is a special case, a 5'7" little lefty who brings it in the mid 90's MPH. He's the shortest, and at 21, youngest, player to make an MLB roster this year. At a Flutiesque 5'7.75" myself, I always root for the underdog.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Week 6: Bidding War Won!
Bids:
Sizemore: Skwirls:20, Usuals: 18, Chaos:16, Highlanders:6, MtBaker:5
Rcepskinski: CHaos:1
Sweeney: Highlanders:3, Skwirls:1
Plouffe: Mt.Baker:4
Marson: Fountain:1
Gentry: Fountain:2
------------------------------------
FAAB remaining:
Chaos:92, Troops:93, Fountain:91, Mt.Baker:74, Liefers:94, TIgerBlood:87, China:99, Skwirls:78, Usuals:75, Owls:87, Bustinash:97,Highlanders:67
Sizemore: Skwirls:20, Usuals: 18, Chaos:16, Highlanders:6, MtBaker:5
Rcepskinski: CHaos:1
Sweeney: Highlanders:3, Skwirls:1
Plouffe: Mt.Baker:4
Marson: Fountain:1
Gentry: Fountain:2
------------------------------------
FAAB remaining:
Chaos:92, Troops:93, Fountain:91, Mt.Baker:74, Liefers:94, TIgerBlood:87, China:99, Skwirls:78, Usuals:75, Owls:87, Bustinash:97,Highlanders:67
Week 6: Surprise Call-Ups
The talk all over fantasy baseball is the surprise call-up of Eric Hosmer. A stud-in-waiting, Hosmer has generated buzz as perhaps THE guy to blow your FAAB on this season. On MLB Network's Fantasy 411, the host said: "See if you can get a FAAB Equity Loan for this guy." :-)
Exciting, right? Alas, no such fun in our AL-only league; he's already on somebody's farm. Boooo! :-(
Funnily enough, while they say the Royals couldn't ignore Hosmer's .439 BA, there was another prospect tearing up Triple-A pitching at a .400+ clip, and he IS in-play in our league. Second-sacker Scott Sizemore, a popular sleeper pick last spring, was hitting .408 as a Toledo Mud Hen, and the Tigers simply couldn't ignore him any longer, either. To wit, here are my moves for this week:
ADD S. Sizemore ($20) and WAIVE A. Kennedy
ADD R. Sweeney ($1) and WAIVE T. Buck
ACTIVATE K. Slowey and RES B. Jenks
Here's the book on Sizemore from RotoWire:
Still, I (almost?) wish I had an injury in the middle infield. Deciding to risk cutting ties with Adam Kennedy was harder than you might think. I mean, he has no upside whatsoever, but when he plays, he's productive, period. And inasmuch as he comes into every season as a nearly-forgotten back-up, he always seems to end up with 100+ games and decent stats (14 SB last year with Washington; 11 HR the year before with Oakland).
Back to Sizemore. I actually had him (and Lars Anderson) at the end of last year and tried to keep him on my farm this spring, but our rookie rules wouldn't allow it. Using T. Nishioka as a comp, I placed my bid at $20. Nishioka went for $21 this spring, which shocked me. But when you consider starting AL middle infielders are pretty much all locked up in this league, there's gonna be a feeding frenzy for fresh meat. At $20 for Sizemore, I'm being aggressive with my FAAB (as I promised myself I would before the season started) but the bid isn't so high that keeping him for next year at that position isn't out of the question. Again, having legit starters come available mid-season is a rarity in this league. We'll see what the other bids are soon.
Ryan Sweeney for Travis Buck is a hilarious, pathetic straight-up trade with myself -- one of Oakland's marginal 5th OFs for another. I guess in a league this deep, there's one on every team. Last year, my extra OF was Darnell McDonald, so it can work out nicely in the right circumstances. But my hopes for Sweeney aren't high; just don't kill me on the BA, OK kid?
Jenks, I was particularly proud of stealing in the waning moments of our 5-hour auction for a mere $3. I figured even if he didn't sniff a save, he'd help in the K, WHIP, ERA categories. That's what his historical stats told me anyway. Now he seems to have Eric Gagne Disease: Sometimes closers just can't go back to being set-up men. But I don't think that's the case here. Jenks said he discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery just before he was sent to the DL with a phantom injury. He'll work out the kinks in Pawtucket and be back soon, I'm sure.
Slowey, I actually like. Another end-of-auction fill-in-the-roster move, I outbid everybody all the way up to $3. He's a solid big-league pitcher just looking for a spot in the rotation. As a middle reliever, he's posted a 2.25 ERA. In the past 3 seasons as a starter with the Twins, he's posted 12, 10, and 13 wins. Nothing to sneeze at.
Exciting, right? Alas, no such fun in our AL-only league; he's already on somebody's farm. Boooo! :-(
Funnily enough, while they say the Royals couldn't ignore Hosmer's .439 BA, there was another prospect tearing up Triple-A pitching at a .400+ clip, and he IS in-play in our league. Second-sacker Scott Sizemore, a popular sleeper pick last spring, was hitting .408 as a Toledo Mud Hen, and the Tigers simply couldn't ignore him any longer, either. To wit, here are my moves for this week:
ADD S. Sizemore ($20) and WAIVE A. Kennedy
ADD R. Sweeney ($1) and WAIVE T. Buck
ACTIVATE K. Slowey and RES B. Jenks
Here's the book on Sizemore from RotoWire:
In his first game since being promoted from the minors, Scott Sizemore went 3-for-4 with a double, a run scored and an RBI in Tuesday's win versus the Yankees.
Batting second, the 26-year-old showed that he probably should have been summoned from Triple-A Toledo prior to early May. Sizemore was off to an incredible start offensively with the Mud Hens, batting .408/.495/.605 with two homers and 15 RBI over his first 92 plate appearances before getting the call to the bigs. He's well worth owning in AL-only leagues and could have mixed league relevance eventually if he continues to rake.
Still, I (almost?) wish I had an injury in the middle infield. Deciding to risk cutting ties with Adam Kennedy was harder than you might think. I mean, he has no upside whatsoever, but when he plays, he's productive, period. And inasmuch as he comes into every season as a nearly-forgotten back-up, he always seems to end up with 100+ games and decent stats (14 SB last year with Washington; 11 HR the year before with Oakland).
Back to Sizemore. I actually had him (and Lars Anderson) at the end of last year and tried to keep him on my farm this spring, but our rookie rules wouldn't allow it. Using T. Nishioka as a comp, I placed my bid at $20. Nishioka went for $21 this spring, which shocked me. But when you consider starting AL middle infielders are pretty much all locked up in this league, there's gonna be a feeding frenzy for fresh meat. At $20 for Sizemore, I'm being aggressive with my FAAB (as I promised myself I would before the season started) but the bid isn't so high that keeping him for next year at that position isn't out of the question. Again, having legit starters come available mid-season is a rarity in this league. We'll see what the other bids are soon.
Ryan Sweeney for Travis Buck is a hilarious, pathetic straight-up trade with myself -- one of Oakland's marginal 5th OFs for another. I guess in a league this deep, there's one on every team. Last year, my extra OF was Darnell McDonald, so it can work out nicely in the right circumstances. But my hopes for Sweeney aren't high; just don't kill me on the BA, OK kid?
Jenks, I was particularly proud of stealing in the waning moments of our 5-hour auction for a mere $3. I figured even if he didn't sniff a save, he'd help in the K, WHIP, ERA categories. That's what his historical stats told me anyway. Now he seems to have Eric Gagne Disease: Sometimes closers just can't go back to being set-up men. But I don't think that's the case here. Jenks said he discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery just before he was sent to the DL with a phantom injury. He'll work out the kinks in Pawtucket and be back soon, I'm sure.
Slowey, I actually like. Another end-of-auction fill-in-the-roster move, I outbid everybody all the way up to $3. He's a solid big-league pitcher just looking for a spot in the rotation. As a middle reliever, he's posted a 2.25 ERA. In the past 3 seasons as a starter with the Twins, he's posted 12, 10, and 13 wins. Nothing to sneeze at.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Week 5: Still Last Place!
In a side note, in my CBS league the guys like to mock me for being a "homer" as I have 6 Red Sox on my team. As I haven't won a single game this year (it's H2H), I've decided to blow up the team. I started by renaming my team the Boston Americans, then I proceeded to make a half-dozen trade offers for Red Sox. I finally snared Carl Crawford, after months of attempts, for Ichrio and Jorge de la Rosa. This on the same day as Crawford gets the game-winning hit. I don't think I underpaid, but if there was ever a buy-low candidate, it's Mr. .164.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Standings and Stats Update
CATEGORY STANDINGS - Games Played Through Tuesday April 26
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Monday, April 25, 2011
Week 4: Last place is mine!
It's taken some doing, but I've successfully sunk to the bottom of the heap. 12th in a 12-team league.
Is it time to hit the panic button? Punt on the season and start playing for next year? At this time last year, I was in first place. At the time, I was riding a hot start from SS Alex Gonzalez ($2) and SP Colby Lewis ($6). I finished 6th, mainly due to injuries such as the season-ending concussing of Justin Morneau. I made the trade for Ellsbury, but he got hurt, too. My league-mates all agreed I was torpedoed by the DL.
Now, I'm off to the opposite start. What to do? It seems 2 or 3 hot players -- or cold players -- can make all the difference a league this tight and competitive. So far, I'm all cold.
Pitching so far is my downfall. Buchholz and Lewis, who "anchored my rotation" last year, are off to tough starts. The fliers I took on Ogando ($2) and Litsch ($4) may pay off, though. Not paying for a closer seems silly now, with Papelbon, Soria, and Rivera only making mid-$20s. I've got zero saves, although so do 4 other teams. My strategy was to take power set-up guys to work the Ks, ERA, and WHIP categories, figuring one of them might end up closing at some point during the season. Daniel Bard was job 1... The bidding war got up to $14, which I'm fine with. Darren O'Day ($1), Bobby Jenks ($3), Octavio Dotel ($1), and Ryan Perry ($1) round out the bullpen. I thought Ogando was going to be part of this crew, but he's been a revelation as a starter so far.
As for hitting, is it just my imagination or are a LOT of hitters off to slow starts this year? It'sreasonable a virtual lock that hitters will warm up as the summer does. The time to buy hitting is now. And the time to not panic on hitting is now. How patient an owner is will determine what kind of trades go down. Already Adrian Gonzalez, Derek Jeter, BJ Upton, and Derrek Lee have been moved. A guy like Youkilis (.222) at an affordable $36 would be a nice target here; he'll be hitting in the middle of a killer line-up that will almost certainly put up big crooked numbers this summer when the wind starts blowing out at Fenway.
The key to my season may very well be Joe Mauer. I locked him up for 2 more years at $29. The last time I wrote him off because of weird injuries was 2009, then he came back and knocked the cover off the ball for 4 months. Getting him back may be the best trade I can make... Assuming I don't panic in the meantime.
Is it time to hit the panic button? Punt on the season and start playing for next year? At this time last year, I was in first place. At the time, I was riding a hot start from SS Alex Gonzalez ($2) and SP Colby Lewis ($6). I finished 6th, mainly due to injuries such as the season-ending concussing of Justin Morneau. I made the trade for Ellsbury, but he got hurt, too. My league-mates all agreed I was torpedoed by the DL.
Now, I'm off to the opposite start. What to do? It seems 2 or 3 hot players -- or cold players -- can make all the difference a league this tight and competitive. So far, I'm all cold.
Pitching so far is my downfall. Buchholz and Lewis, who "anchored my rotation" last year, are off to tough starts. The fliers I took on Ogando ($2) and Litsch ($4) may pay off, though. Not paying for a closer seems silly now, with Papelbon, Soria, and Rivera only making mid-$20s. I've got zero saves, although so do 4 other teams. My strategy was to take power set-up guys to work the Ks, ERA, and WHIP categories, figuring one of them might end up closing at some point during the season. Daniel Bard was job 1... The bidding war got up to $14, which I'm fine with. Darren O'Day ($1), Bobby Jenks ($3), Octavio Dotel ($1), and Ryan Perry ($1) round out the bullpen. I thought Ogando was going to be part of this crew, but he's been a revelation as a starter so far.
As for hitting, is it just my imagination or are a LOT of hitters off to slow starts this year? It's
The key to my season may very well be Joe Mauer. I locked him up for 2 more years at $29. The last time I wrote him off because of weird injuries was 2009, then he came back and knocked the cover off the ball for 4 months. Getting him back may be the best trade I can make... Assuming I don't panic in the meantime.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Week 3 : No Roster Moves
This is a tough situation. I always want to be making moves. I figure with guys on the DL, I can add a new player, reserve the disabled player, and end up controlling more players. Controlling players I think is huge in this AL-only league. You know how excited you get when somebody pops up on a most-added list in your regular leagues? That hot young call-up, or guy breaking out, or the guy getting a chance at saves because of an injury to the incumbent closer? Yah, well in this league, he's already gone. Disappointing and frustrating.
This week, I have Mauer and Ryan Perry on the DL. That leaves me 2 slots to add from the free agent pool -- or more appropriately, the free-agent puddle. But I wasn't particularly enthused with any of the FA pitchers right now, and who wants to add a back-up catcher to their active line-up? I'll simply wait for both guys to come off the DL, though it pains me a bit to have dead spots in the active line-up.
The one guy I did want to make a bid on was Chris Davis. Following the injury to Josh Hamilton, he got called up this past week, reward for tearing up Triple-A once again. This is the same guy who was a starting 1B just two years ago. He's got power galore, and he hits is an uber-favorable hitters park. Before the season started, I exchanged tweets with Chad Finn of the Boston Globe regarding Mitch Moreland. I said remember Chris Davis is there too! He said:
Here's the latest on Davis:
With the solid Daric Barton at 1B, promising thumper Mark Trumbo at CI, and ROY-runner-up Danny Valencia at 3B, at I simply have no roster spot available to add Davis. To date, Davis hasn't had an at-bat. His best shot at playing time is still probably a trade. So he'll end up being a missed opportunity of sorts, like the Legend of Sam Fuld. Ugh, I'm eating my heart out over here!
This week, I have Mauer and Ryan Perry on the DL. That leaves me 2 slots to add from the free agent pool -- or more appropriately, the free-agent puddle. But I wasn't particularly enthused with any of the FA pitchers right now, and who wants to add a back-up catcher to their active line-up? I'll simply wait for both guys to come off the DL, though it pains me a bit to have dead spots in the active line-up.
The one guy I did want to make a bid on was Chris Davis. Following the injury to Josh Hamilton, he got called up this past week, reward for tearing up Triple-A once again. This is the same guy who was a starting 1B just two years ago. He's got power galore, and he hits is an uber-favorable hitters park. Before the season started, I exchanged tweets with Chad Finn of the Boston Globe regarding Mitch Moreland. I said remember Chris Davis is there too! He said:
GlobeChadFinn Mar 22, 10:07pm via Web
Here's the latest on Davis:
Chris Davis - 1B - Texas Rangers
Rangers recalled INF Chris Davis from Triple-A Round Rock.
Rangers manager Ron Washington plans to give Mitch Moreland some time in the outfield, so Davis could see some time at first base if he swings the bat well enough. The 25-year-old has had numerous chances in the big leagues, but has a .248 batting average and 278 strikeouts over 806 at-bats. He's worth an add in AL-only leagues based on his power potential. Apr. 13 - 12:34 pm
Monday, April 11, 2011
What a Difference a Week Makes
OK, everybody who saw it coming that Manny would retire a week into the season, speak now.
[Crickets.]
That's what I thought.
As one of my leaguemates put it:
One positive is that it opens up the big door of opportunity potential playing time for aSam Fuld, all 5'8" 170 pounds of him. He's already made several sparkling plays in the field, where he plays with reckless abandon (his nicknames include "Wall-Magnet"). He has never been considered any kind of real prospect, no doubt due to his diminutive size. All the more reason to root for him in my book, being 5'7.75" myself. I always root for the little guy, be it Doug Flutie or Dustin Pedroia or Spud Webb. Even cooler, though, is that he's from Durham, NH, which is where I went to college (go Cats!) and a mere 8 miles from my home.
Now, last week if you'll recall, I wanted to add Fuld. But I overthought it. Although I believe he can be a productive player in real life and in fantasy (namely, providing ever-elusive steals), I didn't figure Joe Maddon shared the same enthusiasm for Fuld that I did; thus, he wouldn't get enough ABs to be worth the even the dollar bid. So I made Fuld the backup move in replacing injured Franklin Gutierrez (who can't stop his bellyachin'). I added Travis Buck, who was a much safer bet to pick up some starts in the Oakland outfield.
Let's review how that worked out for me:
Buck: 1 for 11 with 1 run scored
Fuld: 5 for 19 with 5 steals!
D'oh!
So of course, I attempted to right my wrong this week, especially now that Manny's out of the way. Unfortunately, I knew those 5 steals wouldn't go unnoticed in this savvy AL-only league. So I bumped my bid up 500% over last week, figuring that's what it would take to get him. Talk about inflation! So look how THAT worked out for me:
Moves 4/11 Posted Bids:
Fuld- Owls:6, Skwirls:5, China:4,Chaos:2, Highlanders:2
Grrrrrrrr!
In other news, I had 2 pitchers on the DL, so I attempted to scoop a potential saves guy in O's lefty Mike Gonzalez. I've owned him in previous years and have always loved his Ks (well over 9 per 9 innings). My strategy this season is to buy set-up guys with high Ks and/or low WHIPs, hoping to get lucky with an occasional save or, better yet, tapping a closer-in-waiting at a bargain price. But once again...
Gonzalez- Liefers:2, Skwirls:1
Grrrrrrrr!
This final move, a ditto on the move above, did work out for me.
Dotel- Skwirls:1, Bustinash:1 (Skwirls lower in standings)
See you in Week 3.
[Crickets.]
That's what I thought.
As one of my leaguemates put it:
One single: $27Yes, he paid too much to begin with, but it was a classic high-risk, high-reward type move in the first place. What's really interesting to me now is how this affects the Rays going forward. Desmond Jennings is the heir apparent, of course, but he's still working on things in Triple-A Durham. Plus, the cost-conscious Rays are loathe to start the clock ticking on his service time too soon. So where does that leave the Rays? With a decimated lineup... Like, one that you want to start targeting for your fantasy pitching staff.
Manny being Manny: priceless
One positive is that it opens up the big door of opportunity potential playing time for aSam Fuld, all 5'8" 170 pounds of him. He's already made several sparkling plays in the field, where he plays with reckless abandon (his nicknames include "Wall-Magnet"). He has never been considered any kind of real prospect, no doubt due to his diminutive size. All the more reason to root for him in my book, being 5'7.75" myself. I always root for the little guy, be it Doug Flutie or Dustin Pedroia or Spud Webb. Even cooler, though, is that he's from Durham, NH, which is where I went to college (go Cats!) and a mere 8 miles from my home.
Now, last week if you'll recall, I wanted to add Fuld. But I overthought it. Although I believe he can be a productive player in real life and in fantasy (namely, providing ever-elusive steals), I didn't figure Joe Maddon shared the same enthusiasm for Fuld that I did; thus, he wouldn't get enough ABs to be worth the even the dollar bid. So I made Fuld the backup move in replacing injured Franklin Gutierrez (who can't stop his bellyachin'). I added Travis Buck, who was a much safer bet to pick up some starts in the Oakland outfield.
Let's review how that worked out for me:
Buck: 1 for 11 with 1 run scored
Fuld: 5 for 19 with 5 steals!
D'oh!
So of course, I attempted to right my wrong this week, especially now that Manny's out of the way. Unfortunately, I knew those 5 steals wouldn't go unnoticed in this savvy AL-only league. So I bumped my bid up 500% over last week, figuring that's what it would take to get him. Talk about inflation! So look how THAT worked out for me:
Moves 4/11 Posted Bids:
Fuld- Owls:6, Skwirls:5, China:4,Chaos:2, Highlanders:2
Grrrrrrrr!
In other news, I had 2 pitchers on the DL, so I attempted to scoop a potential saves guy in O's lefty Mike Gonzalez. I've owned him in previous years and have always loved his Ks (well over 9 per 9 innings). My strategy this season is to buy set-up guys with high Ks and/or low WHIPs, hoping to get lucky with an occasional save or, better yet, tapping a closer-in-waiting at a bargain price. But once again...
Gonzalez- Liefers:2, Skwirls:1
Grrrrrrrr!
This final move, a ditto on the move above, did work out for me.
Dotel- Skwirls:1, Bustinash:1 (Skwirls lower in standings)
See you in Week 3.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Week 1 Roster Moves
Roster moves for Week 1.
RES OF Gutierrez and ADD T. Buck ($1)
RES OF Gutierrez and ADD S. Fuld ($1)
Skwirls added Travis Buck, who is filling in for Grady Sizemore in real life and Franklin Gutierrez for my fantasy team. Buck has nothing really to offer except at-bats at this point, so all I'm hoping for here is some additions in the counting categories and hope he doesn't hurt me in the batting average.
Here's the scoop on Buck:
News: Buck could see significant playing time early in the season until Grady Sizemore is able to return, the team's official site reports. (Sun Mar 27)
Spin: The Indians are going to have a roster decision to make when Sizemore returns and it's expected to come down to Buck and fellow reserve outfielder Shelley Duncan. "Buck is going to see a significant amount of time," manager Manny Acta said, "because we have decisions to make." Buck could make a nice short term pickup if you're looking for some Sizemore insurance.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: Buck will try to resurrect his career by winning a backup job in Cleveland. He always has had a solid line-drive stroke and a little more offensive potential than he's given credit for, but he's also had a chronic inability to stay healthy; oblique and leg issues, which cost him almost four months last season, were merely the latest woes. Even if he does earn some extended playing time, odds are that some ailment will creep up to cause him to lose it. Still, he's a player to at least have on your radar screen in AL-only leagues.
If Buck was not available, my back-up addition was Sam Fuld. Fuld, a little guy with a big heart, hails from Durham NH, where I went to college, just 8 miles from my house! Saw him hit a triple in spring training... I'm rooting for this kid!
RES OF Gutierrez and ADD T. Buck ($1)
RES OF Gutierrez and ADD S. Fuld ($1)
Skwirls added Travis Buck, who is filling in for Grady Sizemore in real life and Franklin Gutierrez for my fantasy team. Buck has nothing really to offer except at-bats at this point, so all I'm hoping for here is some additions in the counting categories and hope he doesn't hurt me in the batting average.
Here's the scoop on Buck:
News: Buck could see significant playing time early in the season until Grady Sizemore is able to return, the team's official site reports. (Sun Mar 27)
Spin: The Indians are going to have a roster decision to make when Sizemore returns and it's expected to come down to Buck and fellow reserve outfielder Shelley Duncan. "Buck is going to see a significant amount of time," manager Manny Acta said, "because we have decisions to make." Buck could make a nice short term pickup if you're looking for some Sizemore insurance.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: Buck will try to resurrect his career by winning a backup job in Cleveland. He always has had a solid line-drive stroke and a little more offensive potential than he's given credit for, but he's also had a chronic inability to stay healthy; oblique and leg issues, which cost him almost four months last season, were merely the latest woes. Even if he does earn some extended playing time, odds are that some ailment will creep up to cause him to lose it. Still, he's a player to at least have on your radar screen in AL-only leagues.
If Buck was not available, my back-up addition was Sam Fuld. Fuld, a little guy with a big heart, hails from Durham NH, where I went to college, just 8 miles from my house! Saw him hit a triple in spring training... I'm rooting for this kid!
Friday, April 1, 2011
Meet the 2011 Skiing Skwirls
My AL-only league is a highly competitive 12 team 5x5 roto now in its 20th year. I was invited to join 3 years ago. Both seasons I finished in the middle of the pack. This season I had a nice bunch of keepers (up to 10 + 2 rookies) and was looking forward to the auction. I installed myself at my brother's house in his home office -- as a stock analyst, he has a nice set-up with multiple monitors -- and entered the draft feeling confident.
I bode my time whilst others tripped over themselves to bid up the top unprotected players in the league. I would've loved to have Adrian Gonzalez, but the bidding topped out at a nose-bleed-inducing $47. Other stars went for similarly big bucks: $47 for Miggie, $45 for Dunn, $39 for Lester. By the time I started bidding, I was left with too much money in the bank and not enough good players to spend it on. To make matters worse, due to a typo on my spreadsheet, I had more money to spend than I realized; I was forced to abandon bidding wars I could've won. A recipe for disaster, right?
Well, you be the judge:
TM 9: SKWIRLS
Scott Campbell
Player TM Pos $Sal Con
*Joe Mauer MIN C 29 L3
Jake Fox BAL C 4 S2
*Daric Barton OAK 1B 6 L2
Adam Kennedy SEA 2B 3 S2
A. Cabrera CLE SS 23 S2
Danny Valencia MIN 3B 13 S2
Mark Trumbo ANA 1B/3B 6 S2
Yunel Escobar TOR 2B/SS 12 S1
F. Gutierrez SEA OF 9 S2
*J. Ellsbury BOS OF 20 L2
*J. Pierre CWS OF 35 S1
David DeJesus OAK OF 16 S2
*M. Ordonez DET OF 17 S1
*David Ortiz BOS UTIL 14 S1
Bobby Jenks BOS RP 3 S2
Darren O'Day TEX RP 1 S1
Ryan Perry DET RP 1 S2
Daniel Bard BOS RP 14 S2
Kevin Slowey MIN RP 3 S2
Jesse Litsch TOR SP 4 S2
*Clay Buchholz BOS SP 13 L2
Alexi Ogando TEX SP 2 S2
*Colby Lewis TEX SP 6 S1
*Scott Campbell TOR FARM (2B) 0
#1 J. Iglesias BOS FARM (SS) 0
*Michael Ynoa OAK FARM (SP) 0
*Keeper holdover from last season
#1 Farm player draft, first overall pick.
I kind of hated my team, I'll be honest. But when I put in my CBS projections and tabulated the results, I found I wasn't so badly off as I thought:
Skwirls 2011:
894 RUNS
150 HR
798 RBI
162 SB
.283 BA
Compare those projections to last year's winning team:
954 RUNS
191 HR
897 RBI
177 SB
.274 BA
Near as I can tell, I might only be one big bat away from contention. To that end, I'll be aggressive with FAAB early, and on the trade front. Maybe there's hope for the Skwirls yet.
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