Whither Juan?

A few days ago, Mike Gianella tweet-dissed Juan Pierre. As a fellow suffering owner, I tweeted back to him, urging caution.  The next day he tweeted that he had traded Pierre. 

Today he expounded on the Pierre Problem in his blog.  Granted, MG netted Edwin Jackson, a CHI-A for CHI-A deal that I would've probably considered myself.  But frankly, while I'm disappointed with his 7 steals thus far, I don't get the hateration Pierre's garnering lately.

Clearly, fantasy owners are getting impatient: Pierre's ownership is down to 69% in ESPN, 67% in CBS.  But are things really that bad? 

Here are some recent player news snippets:

ESPN Rotowire

Pierre went 1-for-4 with a steal and a run scored in the White Sox's win Tuesday.

Spin:

Normally, a steal is not a big deal for Pierre. However, this was his first attempt since May 3. It was probably important for Pierre's confidence that he be successful on this try.

Tue, May 24

All-Star Sports/MSNBC

Wednesday May. 11, 2011 Juan Pierre went 0-for-4 in Tuesday's loss, dropping his average to .243.
How much longer can the White Sox afford to stick with Pierre? He's never been a very good player unless he's hitting close to .300, and he's far south of that. He's also been thrown out on eight of his 14 steal attempts, and he's scored just 13 times in 36 games, though the guys below him deserve credit there as well. Manager Ozzie Guillen is in his corner, so Pierre is likely safe for a little while longer. The White Sox, though, may want to try Dayan Viciedo in left field later on.

CBSSports.com

White Sox left fielder Juan Pierre went 3 for 4 at the dish with two runs scored in the team's win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Pierre has a five-game hitting streak, and it's one that's boosting his batting average as he's gone 9 for 23 (.391) with five runs scored. His batting average is up to .288 on the year because of it.
(Updated 05/23/2011).

Fantasy Analysis

Right around the start of this mini-streak, manager Ozzie Guillen spoke publicly about moving Pierre down in the order. Pierre has seemingly responded and would need a big drop in production to lose his top spot. As of now, Pierre is a low- to mid-range option for the short term in most formats, but if he keeps this up then he'll open doors for himself in all leagues.

CBS is the most sanguine about Pierre's prospects, but there's more haterde than lemonade being served here. Yes, he hadn't attempted a steal since May 3 until last night's successful swipe.  And yes he's been caught a lot this year.  And yes, if you're a one-trick pony, and that trick is SBs, you've got to do better in the base-stealing dept.

But when all the market indicators are pointing one way, it's often a good time to look in the other direction.  So here's my rebuttal to the haters, at least as it pertains to an AL-only league.

• Pierre's not not-hitting: He's got 10-game hitting streak going. (Notice Mike didn't mention that factoid.) 
• He's extremely durable: 9 of the last 10 years he's played more than 140 games, including five (5!) max-162s in a row, and 160 last season.
• Consistent, too:  He's always a better-than-average source for runs, batting average, and steals. 

So you know what you're going to get, and in AL-only, that's pretty huge.  I'm carrying him at a $35 salary, which I inherited when I traded for him 2 summers ago, and while I would like to have it in the high 20s, I'm fine with it, in part because he's so consistent.  Track-record + playing time = solid player.  Notice everyone saying his PT is in jeopardy, but remember, Ozzie stuck with Podsednik all year, too.... He's not scared of trotting this kind of one-trick pony out there every day and seeing what happens. 

Here's JP's 5x5 line thus far:

19 R / 0 HR / 10 RBI / 8 SB / .261 AVG

At 51 games and 199 ABs, we can do napkin math and treble those numbers for his on-pace final line:

56 R / 0 HR / 30 RBI / 24 SB / .261 AVG

This is well under his lifetime average and his 2011 projections.  The fewest he's stolen is 30 in 2009 with LA.  His lifetime BA is .291 with 44 bags per season.  So he's clearly struggled to start the season, but even at this pace, 24 bags is 24 bags. 

Are his steals down because of his age?  Baseball Reference comp Willie Wilson was stealing second successfully until he was 36, and although it seems he's been around forever, Pierre is only 33. Again, Pierre is consistent, and he's durable.

It's more likely there are other factors in play with his stealing slump... team's offensive struggles, cold weather, fewer favorable in-game situations, temporary loss in confidence, minor injury?  Hard to say, but in short, he's simply too good at stealing bases to be this inept at stealing bases.

Let's take a look at the preseason projections:

ESPN's computations called for 49 SB and a .280 BA.
SportingNews had him at 61 and .275.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Guide had 51 and .282.
CBSSports expected 54 and .273. 

They could all be wrong. Pierre could be in steep decline. But I don't think so. As the weather warms, so does Juan.  In his 3-year splits, his worst batting average months are April and September, while May and June are his best months for stealing bases. 

So, I say hold onto the active leader in steals (534) for another month.  Exercise some patience.  Channel your inner Tito Francona. Field inquiries and put out some feelers, sure, but don't dump him just yet.  Steals, like homers, can come in bunches, and you don't want to see those steals on the waiver wire, or worse yet, in your opponent's SB column. If anything, this could be a trading (or waiver wire adding) opportunity.