Movin' on Up!

This week saw a dramatic rise in the fortunes of the Skiing Skwirls.  We're now solidly middle-class!  Much like the Red Sox IRL, the Skwirls started off pathetically slow, but are now turning it on.  Patience is a very difficult skill to learn, and I'm only starting to get the hang of it after 7 years of fantasy managing.  Despite my issues at auction, I drafted what I thought was a competitive team. The fact that I was in last place after the first month wasn't so much a reflection of the players I fielded but of their collective performance at that time. I haven't stood pat -- I've made moves nearly every week, plus my blockbuster trade -- but I haven't cleaned house either, and it's starting to pay dividends.

Week 9 Roster Moves:

ADD J. Outman ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD A. Albuqueque ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Hill ($1) and RES K. Slowey
ADD R. Andino ($3) and RES S. Sizemore

Slowey is slowly looking like someone who isn't going to help me this year; his listing as disabled opened up a pitching slot.

I made a low bid on Outman, who I'm not sold on, despite his fortuitous surname. Three other teams bid on him; winner paid $7.

So I got my second choice, Al "Must've Taken a Wrong Turn at" Alburquerque.  I've been watching AA for a few weeks now; his stats are stupid: 26 Ks in only 15 innings! His worst outing was a 2 hit, 2 walk debacle against the Red Sox that cost him his only L so far.  (If he pitches lights out against everybody in the AL except Boston, that would suit me just fine!)

My other roster move was a worst-case scenario. My Quixotic $20 bid for 2B Scott Sizemore resulted in this bad news:

Friday May. 27, 2011 Athletics acquired 2B Scott Sizemore from the Tigers for LHP David Purcey; optioned him to Triple-A Sacramento.
Well, this comes as a surprise. Sizemore was batting just .222 with one double and four RBI over his first 63 at-bats this season, but we still think he deserved a longer look in Detroit. Mark Ellis has really struggled offensively this season, but it's not clear if Sizemore will get much of an opportunity in Oakland, either. At least not immediately.

Shocked and dismayed I was. The couple weeks with SS netted me 4 RBI, 8 runs, and a steal. Looks like he'll fit right in with the A's, as none of them can hit, either. (Bad-da-dum!)

So it's come to this at 2B: Robert Andino.

Not sure what's he's smiling about: He's a 27-year-old fill-in middle infielder who seems to offer neither speed nor power. In 6 years of part-time playing time in the majors, his high-water mark for the season in RBI is... 10. Eeesh. Some teams simply leave the slot filled with a guy who's hurt or sent down, but I don't subscribe to that way of thinking. I use these opportunities to more control players, and hopefully add to my counting stats in small increments without hurting the team BA too much. In a 12-team AL-only, there are rarely starters available on waivers, but with Brian Roberts out indefinitely (shocking, I know) Andino is the man at second in Baltimore.  Here's the preseason take on him from CBSSports:

After playing in a career-high 78 games and seeing 198 at-bats in 2009, Robert Andino saw a reduced role last season but did well in his limited opportunities. He hit .295 with two home runs and six RBI in 61 at-bats. The 26-year-old is better known for his defense and has not seen enough playing time in the majors to warrant serious Fantasy ownership. Heading in 2011, Andino -- a career .226 hitter -- will have to fight to remain on the Orioles' roster as a utility infielder. Keep an eye on how he does in the spring but plan on ignoring Andino in the majority of Fantasy formats on Draft Day. (Updated 2/8/11)

 However, he did post a respectable 13 HR / 76 RBI / 16 SB season at Triple-A Norfolk. He only batted .264 with a rotten 110/29 K/BB split, but I'd take it.

Whither Juan?

A few days ago, Mike Gianella tweet-dissed Juan Pierre. As a fellow suffering owner, I tweeted back to him, urging caution.  The next day he tweeted that he had traded Pierre. 

Today he expounded on the Pierre Problem in his blog.  Granted, MG netted Edwin Jackson, a CHI-A for CHI-A deal that I would've probably considered myself.  But frankly, while I'm disappointed with his 7 steals thus far, I don't get the hateration Pierre's garnering lately.

Clearly, fantasy owners are getting impatient: Pierre's ownership is down to 69% in ESPN, 67% in CBS.  But are things really that bad? 

Here are some recent player news snippets:

ESPN Rotowire

Pierre went 1-for-4 with a steal and a run scored in the White Sox's win Tuesday.

Spin:

Normally, a steal is not a big deal for Pierre. However, this was his first attempt since May 3. It was probably important for Pierre's confidence that he be successful on this try.

Tue, May 24

All-Star Sports/MSNBC

Wednesday May. 11, 2011 Juan Pierre went 0-for-4 in Tuesday's loss, dropping his average to .243.
How much longer can the White Sox afford to stick with Pierre? He's never been a very good player unless he's hitting close to .300, and he's far south of that. He's also been thrown out on eight of his 14 steal attempts, and he's scored just 13 times in 36 games, though the guys below him deserve credit there as well. Manager Ozzie Guillen is in his corner, so Pierre is likely safe for a little while longer. The White Sox, though, may want to try Dayan Viciedo in left field later on.

CBSSports.com

White Sox left fielder Juan Pierre went 3 for 4 at the dish with two runs scored in the team's win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Pierre has a five-game hitting streak, and it's one that's boosting his batting average as he's gone 9 for 23 (.391) with five runs scored. His batting average is up to .288 on the year because of it.
(Updated 05/23/2011).

Fantasy Analysis

Right around the start of this mini-streak, manager Ozzie Guillen spoke publicly about moving Pierre down in the order. Pierre has seemingly responded and would need a big drop in production to lose his top spot. As of now, Pierre is a low- to mid-range option for the short term in most formats, but if he keeps this up then he'll open doors for himself in all leagues.

CBS is the most sanguine about Pierre's prospects, but there's more haterde than lemonade being served here. Yes, he hadn't attempted a steal since May 3 until last night's successful swipe.  And yes he's been caught a lot this year.  And yes, if you're a one-trick pony, and that trick is SBs, you've got to do better in the base-stealing dept.

But when all the market indicators are pointing one way, it's often a good time to look in the other direction.  So here's my rebuttal to the haters, at least as it pertains to an AL-only league.

• Pierre's not not-hitting: He's got 10-game hitting streak going. (Notice Mike didn't mention that factoid.) 
• He's extremely durable: 9 of the last 10 years he's played more than 140 games, including five (5!) max-162s in a row, and 160 last season.
• Consistent, too:  He's always a better-than-average source for runs, batting average, and steals. 

So you know what you're going to get, and in AL-only, that's pretty huge.  I'm carrying him at a $35 salary, which I inherited when I traded for him 2 summers ago, and while I would like to have it in the high 20s, I'm fine with it, in part because he's so consistent.  Track-record + playing time = solid player.  Notice everyone saying his PT is in jeopardy, but remember, Ozzie stuck with Podsednik all year, too.... He's not scared of trotting this kind of one-trick pony out there every day and seeing what happens. 

Here's JP's 5x5 line thus far:

19 R / 0 HR / 10 RBI / 8 SB / .261 AVG

At 51 games and 199 ABs, we can do napkin math and treble those numbers for his on-pace final line:

56 R / 0 HR / 30 RBI / 24 SB / .261 AVG

This is well under his lifetime average and his 2011 projections.  The fewest he's stolen is 30 in 2009 with LA.  His lifetime BA is .291 with 44 bags per season.  So he's clearly struggled to start the season, but even at this pace, 24 bags is 24 bags. 

Are his steals down because of his age?  Baseball Reference comp Willie Wilson was stealing second successfully until he was 36, and although it seems he's been around forever, Pierre is only 33. Again, Pierre is consistent, and he's durable.

It's more likely there are other factors in play with his stealing slump... team's offensive struggles, cold weather, fewer favorable in-game situations, temporary loss in confidence, minor injury?  Hard to say, but in short, he's simply too good at stealing bases to be this inept at stealing bases.

Let's take a look at the preseason projections:

ESPN's computations called for 49 SB and a .280 BA.
SportingNews had him at 61 and .275.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Guide had 51 and .282.
CBSSports expected 54 and .273. 

They could all be wrong. Pierre could be in steep decline. But I don't think so. As the weather warms, so does Juan.  In his 3-year splits, his worst batting average months are April and September, while May and June are his best months for stealing bases. 

So, I say hold onto the active leader in steals (534) for another month.  Exercise some patience.  Channel your inner Tito Francona. Field inquiries and put out some feelers, sure, but don't dump him just yet.  Steals, like homers, can come in bunches, and you don't want to see those steals on the waiver wire, or worse yet, in your opponent's SB column. If anything, this could be a trading (or waiver wire adding) opportunity.

Week 8: Major Trade Announcement!

Gettin' Jiggy wit Miggy

The last place team in my AL-only had decided to throw in the towel on this season and rebuild for next year.  "Young and cheap" was his mantra in his league-wide e-mail.  I took a look at his roster like a kid in the proverbial candy store... although as a kid, I tended ignore most of the candy and to go straight for the baseball cards. 

At first, I started putting together an offer for Frank Francisco, since I have 0 (count 'em, zero) saves.  I guess I took "don't pay for saves" too literally this year.  I noted in my e-mail PS that Trumbo ($6) and Ogando ($2) would probably be off-limits, but was willing to discuss other young and cheap players.  But I difficulty making an offer that made sense there, I soon turned to the crown jewel on his roster: Miguel Cabrera.  Figure, he's cleaning house, can't hurt to ask.

I wanted to put together a deal including 1B Daric Barton, who I had tied up with 2-year extension at only $6, but although a solid AL-only guy, his trade value is as low as his batting average right now. Trumbo was a piece I hated to part with, but when you are asking for perhaps the premier offensive player in the league, you've got to give to get.  Because of roster integrity issues (do you have roster integrity rules in your league? I find them annoying), the deal went through several permutations before we settled on the final deal:  Miggy for Trumbo and OF Franklin Gutierrez.

Gutierrez was another late-auction sleeper I stole for only $9.  With Gutirrez coming off the DL, I had too many OFs anyway, so he was expendable. With Trumbo's solid start, and Kendry Morales going down for the year, his trade value was high.  I believe in him, and true power hitters are hard to come by, but I also believe he'll hit his Rookie Rut here soon, and I'm very wary of the Sophomore Slump.  As such, I banked his 7 homers (and 3 steals!) and got "Jiggy wit Miggy."

I feel like I stole Cabrera; what do you think?  Even at $47, I might keep him next year.  Or I might flip him for Youkilis.  I admit I was leery of Miggy after his off-season issues, but they don't seem to be affecting him at the plate.  I fully expect him to net the 38 / 118 / .331 line ESPN projected for him, which would mean 30 HR and 80 RBI for me for the rest of the way.  Will Trumbo and Gutierrez net that production, and hit well over .300?

Miguel gets tagged out by Asdrubal

The Other Cabrera 

Meanwhile, my SS Asdrubal Cabrera was the Fantasy 411's Weekend ROTO MONSTER, going off on Sunday with a 5 for 5 day, 2 homers, and a steal.  (A tip of the cap to my little brother for urging me to pursue him on auction day. I got him for $23 in our high-inflation league.)  Mike Siano had him as a "sleeper SS," and called his breakout season a "Bautista-type year." He's looking like an easy 20-20 guy, and lest you forget, he's only 25 years old!  He's a keeper, kids.

So I guess now with Miggy and Asdrubal, all I need is Melky and Orlando to round out my All-Cabrera Team.  Could do worse... 

Week 7: More Winning Bids, or Fun with FAAB

I promised myself this year I'd be more aggressive spending FAAB.  I've come to realize there's simply no sense in leaving that money on the table.  I mean, what was I saving my FAAB for anyway?  I thought it was for that big inter-league trade or hot rookie call-up.  Turns out, most of the top prospects were already locked up on the farm of somebody else's team. (We do 2 rounds of rookie draft after auction.) And hoping for another Cliff Lee trade, just so I could bid on him, against 11 other guys, frankly isn't a winning strategy.

The first couple years of my AL-only experience, I was a careful spender, trying to only bid for players I really believed in.  I carefully researched them, and if I was confident, I would make a bid. But then I'd bid a dollar and lose him. Or I'd bid more, but not enough. I told myself it was OK, he wasn't worth it, my roster's fine as it is, etc. But I didn't have the player, so I hadn't improved my team, and I wasn't getting the stats; meanwhile, another team had improved itself, and was getting the stats. 

I finally broke through with Bengie Molina last year.  I liked him going to a hitter's park in Texas, I liked his pedigree of steady production in the big leagues, and I liked the playing time he was going to get.  He seemed a very safe bet to be productive in the home stretch of the season.  I "broke the bank" for him and bid $20 big ones. What the hell, right? Well, I won him!

He turned out to be... a total bust.  But it was a bold move that, if he had produced as expected, could've made all the difference and gotten me to finish in the money.  More importantly, I got a taste for blood. I had won a blind auction with a big bid! It was a small victory in an otherwise losing season. 

We're given a $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget, and this year, I intend to use it.  Last week, I made what another league owner called a "quixotic" $20 bid for Scott Sizemore, besting his own bid of $18. While his team sat pretty in 2nd place, my team wallowed in the basement. Why then was I making such a grand gesture, he asked?  Lots of reasons:

Sizemore is a starting middle infielder, hitting 2nd in front of Miggy Cabrera. Just that makes him worth a flier this year with FAAB money. And if he goes let's say... 10/60/.270 with 10 steals, I'd consider keeping him at that salary next year. He doesn't sound like a keeper at $20, but consider how few starting players are available in a 12-team AL-only league. Consider Nishioka went for $21, Pedroia $30, and Macier Izturis went for $12 at auction. Productive middle infielders are hard to find! Moreover, anticipating my enemy's strategies, and then countering them, is a tried-and-true tenet of Tzu's Art of War.  That is to say, a player on my team is a player not on my opponent's team. Worst case, if my team doesn't turn it around, he'll be attractive trade bait when you consider how many other teams wanted and bid on him. 

With all that said, in Week 7 I made (and won) the following bids:

Andy Dirks - Skwirls:9, Usuals:6
Carlos Peguero - Skwirls:7, Liefers:3, Chaos:2
Tim Collins - Skwirls:1*, Owls:1, Highlanders:1

*Lower in standings wins.

My aggressiveness once again paid off. Let's review them quickly.

Andy Dirks (not to be confused with Andy Dick) gets the chance to play (we hope) now that Magglio Ordonez finally hit the DL. Clearly, Mags' ankle was not better and his pathetic statistics thus far prove it. Dirks is a "non-propsect" late bloomer getting his first shot at the bigs. I can see a Brandon Boesch/Nolan Reimold type potential here.

Carlos Peguero is that "top prospect" you've never heard of. All of a sudden, he's the "top prospect in the Seattle organization" and possesses prodigious power. On the crawl on ESPN last night, it said his homer was the one of the longest in the league so far... take a look.

Tim Collins is a special case, a 5'7" little lefty who brings it in the mid 90's MPH. He's the shortest, and at 21, youngest, player to make an MLB roster this year.  At a Flutiesque 5'7.75" myself, I always root for the underdog.

Week 6: Bidding War Won!

Bids:
Sizemore: Skwirls:20, Usuals: 18, Chaos:16, Highlanders:6, MtBaker:5
Rcepskinski: CHaos:1
Sweeney: Highlanders:3, Skwirls:1
Plouffe: Mt.Baker:4
Marson: Fountain:1
Gentry: Fountain:2
------------------------------------
FAAB remaining:
Chaos:92, Troops:93, Fountain:91, Mt.Baker:74, Liefers:94, TIgerBlood:87, China:99, Skwirls:78, Usuals:75, Owls:87, Bustinash:97,Highlanders:67

Week 6: Surprise Call-Ups

The talk all over fantasy baseball is the surprise call-up of Eric Hosmer.  A stud-in-waiting, Hosmer has generated buzz as perhaps THE guy to blow your FAAB on this season.  On MLB Network's Fantasy 411, the host said: "See if you can get a FAAB Equity Loan for this guy."  :-)



Exciting, right?  Alas, no such fun in our AL-only league; he's already on somebody's farm.  Boooo!  :-(

Funnily enough, while they say the Royals couldn't ignore Hosmer's .439 BA, there was another prospect tearing up Triple-A pitching at a .400+ clip, and he IS in-play in our league.  Second-sacker Scott Sizemore, a popular sleeper pick last spring, was hitting .408 as a Toledo Mud Hen, and the Tigers simply couldn't ignore him any longer, either.  To wit, here are my moves for this week:

ADD S. Sizemore ($20) and WAIVE A. Kennedy
ADD R. Sweeney ($1) and WAIVE T. Buck
ACTIVATE K. Slowey and RES B. Jenks

Here's the book on Sizemore from RotoWire:

In his first game since being promoted from the minors, Scott Sizemore went 3-for-4 with a double, a run scored and an RBI in Tuesday's win versus the Yankees.
Batting second, the 26-year-old showed that he probably should have been summoned from Triple-A Toledo prior to early May. Sizemore was off to an incredible start offensively with the Mud Hens, batting .408/.495/.605 with two homers and 15 RBI over his first 92 plate appearances before getting the call to the bigs. He's well worth owning in AL-only leagues and could have mixed league relevance eventually if he continues to rake.

Still, I (almost?) wish I had an injury in the middle infield. Deciding to risk cutting ties with Adam Kennedy was harder than you might think. I mean, he has no upside whatsoever, but when he plays, he's productive, period. And inasmuch as he comes into every season as a nearly-forgotten back-up, he always seems to end up with 100+ games and decent stats (14 SB last year with Washington; 11 HR the year before with Oakland).  

Back to Sizemore.  I actually had him (and Lars Anderson) at the end of last year and tried to keep him on my farm this spring, but our rookie rules wouldn't allow it.  Using T. Nishioka as a comp, I placed my bid at $20. Nishioka went for $21 this spring, which shocked me. But when you consider starting AL middle infielders are pretty much all locked up in this league, there's gonna be a feeding frenzy for fresh meat.  At $20 for Sizemore, I'm being aggressive with my FAAB (as I promised myself I would before the season started) but the bid isn't so high that keeping him for next year at that position isn't out of the question.  Again, having legit starters come available mid-season is a rarity in this league.  We'll see what the other bids are soon. 

Ryan Sweeney for Travis Buck is a hilarious, pathetic straight-up trade with myself -- one of Oakland's marginal 5th OFs for another.  I guess in a league this deep, there's one on every team.  Last year, my extra OF was Darnell McDonald, so it can work out nicely in the right circumstances.  But my hopes for Sweeney aren't high; just don't kill me on the BA, OK kid? 

Jenks, I was particularly proud of stealing in the waning moments of our 5-hour auction for a mere $3. I figured even if he didn't sniff a save, he'd help in the K, WHIP, ERA categories. That's what his historical stats told me anyway. Now he seems to have Eric Gagne Disease: Sometimes closers just can't go back to being set-up men.  But I don't think that's the case here.  Jenks said he discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery just before he was sent to the DL with a phantom injury.  He'll work out the kinks in Pawtucket and be back soon, I'm sure.

Slowey, I actually like. Another end-of-auction fill-in-the-roster move, I outbid everybody all the way up to $3. He's a solid big-league pitcher just looking for a spot in the rotation. As a middle reliever, he's posted a 2.25 ERA. In the past 3 seasons as a starter with the Twins, he's posted 12, 10, and 13 wins. Nothing to sneeze at.

Week 5: Still Last Place!

In a side note, in my CBS league the guys like to mock me for being a "homer" as I have 6 Red Sox on my team. As I haven't won a single game this year (it's H2H), I've decided to blow up the team.  I started by renaming my team the Boston Americans, then I proceeded to make a half-dozen trade offers for Red Sox. I finally snared Carl Crawford, after months of attempts, for Ichrio and Jorge de la Rosa.  This on the same day as Crawford gets the game-winning hit. I don't think I underpaid, but if there was ever a buy-low candidate, it's Mr. .164.